I．National stocks
This week (as of Feb. 15th), edible palm oil stock totals 766,600 tonnes at domestic ports, up 14.3% from 670,700 tonnes on Feb. 1st and up 250,400 tonnes by 48.5% from 516,200 tonnes month-on-month, and up 124,200 tonnes by 19.3% from 642,400 tonnes year-on-year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 119,200 tonnes, up 23,600 tonnes by 24.7% from 95,600 tonnes last week.
The stocks of palm oil in China keep rising after Chinese Spring Festival, especially in North and South China. In the wake of the increasing palm oil arrivals, as of this week, the price spread between palm oil and soybean oil has narrowed by 17 yuan/tonne from 990 yuan/tonne before holiday to settle at 973 yuan/tonne. Besides, the turnover of palm oil is weak this week for the off season of oils market and the delivery delay of palm oil. The palm oil consumption after holiday is mainly for rigid demands. In Feb. 24-degree palm oil import will be about 330,000-380,000 tonnes. Because the import volume is more than demand, palm oil stocks are predicted to further increase.
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for January rises by 50,000 tonnes from the estimate before holiday to settle at 650,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 500,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes), and the estimate for February this week rises by 100,000 tonnes from the estimate before holiday to settle at 450,000-500,000 tonnes (24-degree 330,000-380,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000-150,000 tonnes). The estimate of import volume for March remains basically unchanged from that before holiday to settle at 330,000-360,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 200,000-240,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000-130,000 tonnes).
