Today (Feb. 27th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean closed lower in overnight trading, and meal futures have slipped below 2500 to fresh lows today. Soybean meal spots decline in tepid trade. Specifically, the price falls by 30-50 yuan/tonne to 2,480-2,580 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,530, Shandong 2,480-2,500, Jiangsu 2,480-2,500, Dongguan 2,520-2,550, and Guangxi 2,540-2,580). Soybean meal inventories have rallied upon weak demand when pig amount has touched low under the rampant ASF. Moreover, recent appreciation of the RMB has pulled down import cost. Chinese and the US Presidents are expected to meet in March to strike a deal after a series of progress in talks. China has pledged to purchase additional 10 million tonnes of US soybeans and it has set to crush those bought before. All the above will send a relief to soybean supply. Therefore, soybean meal market will maintain its weak state in the short term for a lack of bullish support, and buyers can briefly wait or take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal keep steady with some declines today, of which it is 2,080-2,130 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangdong 2,070 and Fujian 2,120). Aquaculture is now in off-season, and pig replenishment has touched a low point under the rampant ASF. And the growing inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal last week is a mirror for sagging demand. Besides, there are also some other bearish fundamentals, ranging from a possible thaw in US-China trade frictions to additional purchase of 10 million-tonne US soybeans by China and US DDGS imports on the doorstep. Hence, rapeseed meal spots will broadly extend the weak trend in the near term, and buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 68,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 53,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 12,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. As aquaculture may have been commenced in advance for warm weather conditions in South China, fishmeal is traded better here than that in Northern ports. Overall, short-term fishmeal market will broadly keep steady.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are stable with a decline of 20-100 yuan/tonne. Cottonseed meal market is influenced by the negative news that ASF continues to spread; the number of live hogs in breeding is at a low level; the U.S.-China trade talks were good, and U.S. will delay tariff increases on China, and there will be a Summit for President Xi and Donald Trump in March to finalize the trade agreement. US soybeans overnight closed lower and soybean meal today hits a record low, which may drag cottonseed meal towards weak tendency with fluctuation. However, the downward potential is curbed by the low operation rates in cottonseed oil mills and inadequate supplies of cottonseed meal. Buyers are suggested to wait and see.
(USD $1=CNY 6.70)
