Today (Feb. 19th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean market was closed yesterday, and meal futures point to slight losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots steadily fall in light trading. Specifically, the price steadily goes down by 10-30 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,640-2,690 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,660, Shandong 2,630-2,650, Jiangsu 2,630-2,690, Dongguan 2,650-2,670, and Guangxi 2,650-2,670). African swine fever still wreaks havoc, with several food enterprises found to use infected pork in their products. And soybean meal market has been stricken by soft demand from hog feeding. But inventory pressure of soybean meal has basically eased as its inventory has dropped by 10% to 560,000 tonnes weekly in coastal areas, and soybean arrivals are also small in recent two months; thus, there is limited space for price declines. However, crush margins have been very healthy for imported rapeseed so that Chinese importers have bought another 6 cargoes of rapeseed yesterday. In addition, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit Washington for the seventh round of trade talks on February 21st and 22nd, which will be the final round before the deadline of March 2nd. And the market is still optimistic that the two countries will finalize an agreement, If so, domestic market will fall bearish, so buyers can briefly take hand-to-mouth buying and keep a light stock while waiting for the meeting outcomes.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are stable. US soybeans yesterday were closed, and meals on DCE today fall back slightly, and soybean meal spots stay stable with a decline of 10-30 yuan/tonne amid stagnant turnover. The cottonseed meal market is negative due to the optimistic expectation that China-U.S. will reach agreements when Liu He has gone to Washington for the 7th round of consultations on Feb. 21st-22nd. However, the prices will currently be supported by the low operation rate in cottonseed oil mills and inadequate supply of cottonseed meal. It's expected that currently the cottonseed meal prices in the short run are likely to move at a narrow range. Buyers are suggested to maintain wait-and-see attitudes until the end of Washington US-China consultations.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal steadily edges down, of which it is 2,100-2,230 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10 yuan/tonne partially. (Guangxi 2,100, stable; Guangdong 2,150, stable; and Fujian 2,230, stable). Currently, aquaculture is in slack season, and African swine fever has exerted a greater influence on pig replenishment. But oil mills on the other side are active in importing rapeseed on account of its healthy crush margin at around 200 yuan/tonne, with a purchase of 6 cargoes recently (Yihai 3 cargoes, Maple 2 cargoes, and Shenheng 1 cargo). As such, later supply of rapeseed may get loose. The market is optimistic that China and the United States will manage to hammer out a deal at this round of trade talks in Washington on 21st and 22nd, which will be the final meeting before the deadline of March 2nd. If the two countries live up to that expectation, anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariff on DDGS will likely be eliminated together with that on soybean. Rapeseed meal market is now dragged down by pessimism in the market for later meal demand. Overall, short -term rapeseed meal market will post fluctuation to go weak, and buyers can just take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 68,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 52,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market remains quiet amid slack demand with many companies relying on consuming their stockpiles, and port stock has also come under heavy pressure. But holders are propping up prices for new arrivals from Peru so that fishmeal is still offered firmly. In the near term, the market will probably see few changes.
(USD $1=CNY 6.77)
