Today (Feb. 15th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean slumped last night upon disappointing export data, for China had canceled a 1.25-million-tonne of US soybean bookings in January. Meal futures follow to slide on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and soybean meal spots also fall in weaker trading. Specifically, the price goes down by 30-50 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,680-2,720 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,700, Shandong 2,680-2,700, Jiangsu 2,670-2,720, Dongguan 2,670-2,700, and Guangxi 2,700-2,720). Outbreaks of the African swine fever and intensive selling before the festival have drastically cut down the number of live hogs, which is also indicated in price surges after the festival. For this, soybean meal price is under pressure since the market has been socked in demand pessimism. But soybean meal inventory pressure has almost eased with continued shipments before the festival. On the weak as of February 1st, soybean inventory has dropped by 15% weekly and 28% annually to 630,000 tonnes. Besides, soybean supply may get tight later this quarter after its arrival declined by nearly 20% in the first quarter from a year earlier. So there will be limited room for price declines. Participants can wait for guidance from US-China talks today, for domestic market will turn bearish once a trade deals is reached. By the way, there is a rumor that China may eliminate anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on US DDGS if trade talks go smoothly. Buyers can briefly wait on the sidelines.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal inches lower today, of which it is 2,110-2,250 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,130, down 30; Guangdong 2,170; and Fujian 2,250, down 20). Aquaculture has been in slack season, and hog feeding is hit hard by the contagious African swine fever, for which live pig amount has seen a steep decline with price surges after the festival. And traders said that China may eliminate anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on US DDGS to restore its imports if trade talks go smoothly. Rapeseed meal market is thus weighed down. But the decline is limited thanks to tardy unloading of rapeseed cargoes amid strained relations between China and Canada and supply tensions later for few purchase after March. In the near term, rapeseed meal market will fluctuate at a narrow range. Participants can wait for guidance from US-China talks today, for domestic market will turn bearish once a trade deals is reached, and there may be a thaw in ties between China and Canada. Buyers can briefly wait on the sidelines.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 68,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 52,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal market is in tepid trading for weak demand from feed enterprises just after the Chinese Lunar New Year, but holders are now trying to prop up prices for new cargoes from Peru. Therefore, fishmeal market will see limited changes in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal mostly stays stable with a small rise of 30 yuan/tonne for some prices. Some prices in Xinjiang rise slightly amid the inadequate supplies of cottonseed meal, the low operation rate in cottonseed oil mills and mills' support for meals in prices. However, meal market still comes under pressure for US soybeans and meals on DCE today fall back; soybean meal spots today fall 30-50 yuan/tonne; the demand will not good when the number of live hogs in breeding is greatly influenced by the spread of ASF, and may experience a big decline, which can be proved by the surge of pig prices after holiday. The prices in the short run will have weak upward potential, and are likely to move in narrow range for present. Buyers are suggested to take wait-and-see attitude while the US-China trade talks are ongoing, which may have a negative influence if the agreements are reached.
(USD $1=CNY 6.77)
