Today (Feb. 14th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Soybean meal spots inch down with light trading following losses of futures. The price goes down by 10-20 yuan/tonne to 2,700-2,800 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,700, Shandong 2,700-2,730, Jiangsu 2,700-2,800, Donguan 2,750-2,800, and Guangxi 2,720-2,800). African swine fever has brought great damage to hog feeding, where sharp drops in live pig number have occurred for intensive selling before the festival and can be proved by price surges after the festival. For this, soybean meal price is under pressure since the market has been socked in its demand pessimism. But soybean meal inventory pressure has almost eased with continued shipments before the festival. Besides, soybean supply may get tight later this quarter after its arrival declined by nearly 20% in the first quarter from a year earlier. Meanwhile, downstream buyers will enter into a new round of stockpiles after the festival. With oil mills propping up the price, soybean meal price will remain resilient in the short term, and will probably fluctuate at a narrow range. Participants can wait for outcomes of the US-China trade talks in these two days, and buyers can also wait on the sidelines.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal edges down today, of which it is 2,150-2,270 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10 yuan/tonne partially. (Guangxi 2,150, Guangdong 2,180, and Fujian 2,270, down 10). Aquaculture has been in slack season, and hog feeding is hit hard by the contagious African swine fever, for which live pig amount has seen a steep decline with price surges after the festival. Therefore, rapeseed meal market has come under pressure as the market remains extremely negative about meal demand after the festival. Currently, Canadian rapeseed cargoes have to pass severe-than-usual inspections due to tensions between China and Canada and even some cargoes are said to be recalled for second commodity inspections, so that later rapeseed purchase may be subject to such uncertainties. Besides, there are three cargoes arriving before or during the festival still waiting in line for inspections. With underlying rapeseed supply tensions, rapeseed meal price will have limited downside space, and may fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Participants can wait for outcomes of the US-China trade talks, and buyers can just take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 68,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 52,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal demand is now soft, which is further crippled by low replenishment of live pigs after the festival with African swine fever wrecking havoc. Meanwhile, the market remains inactive with good vibe of the Spring Festival holiday. As holder are almost waiting in the sidelines, fishmeal market will see few ripples in the short term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are stable for the time being. Meal market comes under pressure for futures take a slight drop; soybean meal spots today fall 10-20 yuan/tonne; the demand will not good when the number of live hogs in breeding is greatly influenced by the spread of ASF, and may experience a big decline, which can be proved by the surge of pig prices after holiday. However, the cottonseed meal prices in the short run are likely to move at a narrow range for present given the inadequate supplies of cottonseed meal, the low operation rate in cottonseed oil mills and mills' support for meals in prices. The US-China trade talks are holding in Beijing today and tomorrow, and given the Trump's optimistic attitude, if the agreements are reached, the meals market will not be optimistic. Buyers are suggested to stay on the sideline for the present.
(USD $1=CNY 6.76)
