Today (Feb. 13th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean futures posted sharp rebounds overnight upon US President Donald Trump’s tweet that he is upbeat about hammering out a deal with China. Meal futures edge up after low opens today, and soybean meal spots steadily fluctuate to attract some replenishment at low prices. Specifically, the price steadily fluctuates by 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,710-2,830 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,720, Shandong 2,710-2,730, Jiangsu 2,710-2,820, Dongguan 2,730-2,810, and Guangxi 2,700-2,820). The scale of live hog has suffered a big cut from low replenishment after intensive slaughter for the festival and a hard hit by the rampant African swine fever, so that the market remains extremely bearish about soybean meal demand. Soybean meal price thus finds limited impetus for rebounds. However, while inventory pressure of soybean meal has basically eased amid intensive shipment for the festival, oil mills have halted for the Spring Festival and soybean supply will likely get tight at the end of this quarter after a 20% fall in its port arrival in the first quarter. Meanwhile, oil mills are propping up the price for another wave of stockpiles after the Festival from downstream buyers. Therefore, soybean meal will probably present narrow fluctuations in the short term. Buyers are suggested not to force up the price higher, but to take good control of the positions and consider to make proper replenishment if forward basis falls below 40 yuan/tonne.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal remains basically stable today, of which it is 2,150-2,280 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,150, Guangdong 2,180, and Fujian 2,280). Importers will spend another 15-25 days now for approval and issuance of certificate for Canadian rapeseed and GMO particle meals amid souring relations between China and Canada, which will also impact later cargo purchase. Besides, rapeseed meal inventory remains low, and its crush has fallen to 10,000 tonnes this week for the Spring Festival holiday so that rapeseed meal has suffered output cuts. In addition, three cargoes of rapeseed arriving over the Spring Festival are still waiting in line for commodity inspections and rapeseed purchase will get less after March. Therefore, oil mills are propping up the price for possible supply tensions of rapeseed and soybean at the end of this quarter, but the market is still curbed by slack demand after the festival. Overall, short-term rapeseed meal will likely fluctuate narrowly under such varied factors. By the way, the market is worried about snowfalls in Hubei and Anhui, which, according to latest investigations by Cofeed, will have little impact on domestic rapeseed production. Participants can pay attention to this round of US-China trade talks, and buyers can briefly take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 67,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 12,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market turns bullish upon firm quotations in foreign market and price inversion both at home and abroad. In addition, importers will prop up the price for new fishmeal from Peru. But the market is still tepid amid ongoing festival atmosphere and its inventory is still piling up. Overall, as holders are waiting on the sidelines, fishmeal price will probably stay stable before the Spring Festival.
Cottonseed meal: Today most of the cottonseed meal prices are not offered. However, some prices rise slightly against the strong willingness for higher offers due to the small output of cottonseed meal and the tight supply of raw material during the Chinese spring festival and with machine halt in cottonseed oil mills as well as the upcoming small stockpiling of downstream after holiday. The upward potentials of meal prices is limited because the replenishment of breeding pigs before holiday was very little under the disaster caused by the spread of ASF, and the number of live hogs in breeding after holiday falls dramatically, which leads to the surge of pig prices. Besides, Trump said in tweets that he was optimistic about the trade agreements with China and if the agreements are reached in this round of trade talks, the trends of meals prices will not be optimistic. The prices in the short run are likely to move in narrow range. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.77)
