Today (Mar. 4th), the market for grains in China is shown as follows:
Corn: Domestic corn prices fluctuate to edge up today. The price prevails at 1,900-1,940 yuan/tonne in Shandong, some up by 10-60 yuan/tonne. At Jinzhou port, Liaoning, 2018 new corn with 15% moisture of volume weight over 700 g/L is priced higher by 5-10 yuan at 1,750-1,755 yuan/tonne, and 20% moisture remains unchanged at 1,640 yuan/tonne. At Bayuquan port, 2018 new corn is priced higher by 20 yuan at 1,750-1,760 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L). At Shekou port, Guangdong, second-class new corn remain unchanged at 1,880 yuan/tonne.
Provincial reserves in Northeast and Sinograin have gradually started their purchase, and auction time is said to be postponed and the upset price be increased; hence, Northeastern market is now shored up by state policies. Meanwhile, planters and traders are trying to prop up price on account of cost after rapid declines of corn prices last week. After this, corn sales volume has been shrinking since last weekend, so corn price reverses its declines to rebound, by 10-60 yuan/tonne in Shandong and by 10-20 yuan/tonne at low points at coastal ports. However, corn surplus is still adequate as sales progress has reached only 66% in three Northeastern provinces and 61% in Northern areas. And according to Cofeed, pig number has dropped further by 8.5% in February and sow amount by 15% amid the rampant ASF. So the upward space of corn may be limited by negative demand later. Besides, a foreign report said that China and the United States are much closer to a deal, and China is offering to lower tariffs on U.S. agricultural products; hence, US corn, sorghum and barley may flood into domestic market. Overall, short-term domestic corn market will probably fluctuate at a narrow range.
Sorghum: Imported sorghum prices keep steady today. (US sorghum is not offered for out of stocks in Shanghai, Nantong, Zhangjiagang and Guangdong. Australian sorghum: raw sorghum remains unchanged at 2,160 yuan/tonne in Tianjin, 2,180 in Shanghai and 2,180-2,200 in Qingdao; dried sorghum levels off at 2,140 yuan/tonne in Tianjin and 2,320 in Qingdao. Domestic sorghum prices stays stable today: In Inner Mongolia, raw sorghum and dried sorghum remain unchanged at 1,920 and 2,040 yuan/tonne Hinggan League, 2,000 and 2,100-2,140 yuan/tonne in Chifeng; and raw sorghum with freight is priced steadily at 1,960 yuan/tonne in Tongliao. In Jilin Province, dried sorghum with freight is unchanged at 2,240 yuan/tonne in Changchun, raw sorghum sacks and dried sorghum with freight are both at 2,000 yuan/tonne in Songyuan, bulk dried sorghum with freight is 2,120 yuan/tonne in Baicheng, and raw sorghum is unchanged at 1,900 yuan/tonne and dried sorghum sacks at 1,980 yuan/tonne in Taonan. In Heilongjiang Province, raw sorghum and dried sorghum with freight are priced steadily at 1,880 yuan/tonne and 1,960 yuan/tonne in Daqing, and dried sorghum with freight is unchanged at 2,000 yuan/tonne in Heihe. In Shanxi Province, raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,100 yuan/tonne in Yuncheng, bulk dried sorghum with freight is priced steadily at 2,210 yuan/tonne in Jinzhong, and raw sorghum with freight and dried sorghum with freight remain unchanged at 1,960 and 2,160 yuan/tonne in Xinzhou.
Barley: Barley price holds steady today. (Australian barley: raw sorghum is 2,220-2,230 yuan/tonne in Qingdao and remains unchanged at 2,360-2,380 in Tianjin, and bulk raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,210-2,220 in Nantong; Canadian barley: raw barley is unchanged at 2,120 yuan/tonne in Nantong; French barley: raw barley is unchanged at 2,080-2,090 yuan/tonne in Nantong; Ukrainian barley: not offered in Guangdong).
Grain market is now firmly supported by strained supply of port US sorghum and high cost of Australian sorghum. And port barley has held low inventories when import cost for Australian Barley stays stubbornly high. Therefore, importers with storage in hand tend to prop up prices. But port sorghum and barley have lost their price advantage against corn as its energy feed substitute. And according to Cofeed, pig number has dropped further by 8.5% in February and sow amount by 15% amid the rampant ASF. Besides, a foreign report said that China and the United States are much closer to a deal, and China is offering to lower tariffs on U.S. agricultural products; hence, US corn, sorghum and barley may flood into domestic market. This will bring bearish shocks to domestic market. Generally, port sorghum and barley markets are predicted to keep steady with some fluctuations in the short term.
(USD $1=CNY 6.69)
