Today (Mar. 13th), the market for grains in China is shown as follows:
Corn: Domestic corn prices remain stable with slight declines today. The price prevails at 1,864-1,950 yuan/tonne in Shandong, some rebounding by 10 yuan/tonne from last Friday. At Jinzhou port, Liaoning, 2018 new corn with 15% moisture of volume weight over 700 g/L is priced steadily at 1,740-1,750 yuan/tonne, and 20% moisture levels off at 1,630 yuan/tonne. At Bayuquan port, 2018 new corn is priced higher by 5 yuan at 1,745 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L). At Shekou port, Guangdong, second-class new corn is priced steadily at 1,860 yuan/tonne.
Updates on report yesterday by Cofeed: One-time reserve in Northeastern areas will get started soon, with a purchase of 3.04 Mln tonnes, the price at 1,640-1,680 yuan/tonne in Heilongjiang and 1,700 in Jilin, and the time ending on May 31st, 2019. This is a sign indirectly that corn auction will likely be postponed until June. The market confidence will now be bolstered by such bullish policies. However, while corn surplus remains abundant in planting belt, further processing companies tend to take hand-to-mouth buying. Besides, corn-based feed consumption is soft as hog replenishment hovers at historical lows when the market is hit hard by the ASF. Therefore, corn prices have had little upward impetus under such a loose supply and demand pattern. In the near term, corn market may stay stable to consolidate shored up by positive state policies. Later focus will be on the guidance from policies and the competition between supply and demand.
Sorghum: Imported sorghum prices keep steady today. (US sorghum: raw sorghum is 2,120 yuan/tonne in Shanghai, 2,120 in Nantong, and not offered for out of stock in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong. Australian sorghum: raw sorghum remains unchanged at 2,160 yuan/tonne in Tianjin, 2,180 in Shanghai, 2,180-2,200 in Qingdao and 2,220 in Nantong; dried sorghum levels off at 2,140 yuan/tonne in Tianjin and 2,320 in Qingdao. Domestic sorghum prices stay stable today: In Inner Mongolia, raw sorghum and dried sorghum remain unchanged at 1,920 and 2,000 yuan/tonne Hinggan League; raw sorghum and dried sorghum are priced steadily at 1,940 and 2,080 yuan/tonne in Chifeng; and raw sorghum is priced steadily at 1,960 yuan/tonne in Tongliao. In Jilin Province, dried sorghum with freight is priced steadily at 2,160 yuan/tonne in Changchun, raw sorghum sacks and dried sorghum with freight are both at 2,000 yuan/tonne in Songyuan, bulk dried sorghum with freight is 2,120 yuan/tonne in Baicheng, and raw sorghum is unchanged at 1,900 yuan/tonne and dried sorghum sacks at 1,980 yuan/tonne in Taonan. In Heilongjiang Province, dried sorghum with freight is unchanged at 1,800 yuan/tonne in Qiqihar; raw sorghum and dried sorghum with freight are priced steadily at 1,880 yuan/tonne and 1,960 yuan/tonne in Daqing, and dried sorghum with freight is unchanged at 2,000 yuan/tonne in Heihe. In Shanxi Province, raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,100 yuan/tonne in Yuncheng, bulk dried sorghum with freight is priced steadily at 2,190 yuan/tonne in Jinzhong, and raw sorghum with freight and dried sorghum with freight remain unchanged at 1,960 and 2,160 yuan/tonne in Xinzhou.
Barley: Barley prices stay stable with some fluctuations today. (Australian barley: raw sorghum is 2,220-2,230 yuan/tonne in Qingdao and and bulk raw sorghum at 2,220 in Nantong; Canadian barley: raw barley is unchanged at 2,120 yuan/tonne in Nantong; French barley: raw barley is 2,090-2,100 yuan/tonne in Nantong; Ukrainian barley: not offered in Guangdong).
Grain market is now firmly supported by strained supply of port US sorghum and high cost of Australian sorghum. And port barley has held low inventories when import cost for Australian Barley stays stubbornly high. Therefore, importers with storage in hand tend to prop up prices. But port sorghum and barley have lost their price advantage against corn as its energy feed substitute. Data by China’s Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs showed that 114 outbreaks (111 for hog and 3 for wild boar) of the ASF were reported in 27 provinces, resulting in a slaughtering of 916,000 pigs. The ASF has roiled the original tendency of domestic pig feeding as retail investors holding small and medium-sized farms have quickened their pace to exit this industry and eliminated breeding sows, whose scenario is quite obvious in provinces with frequent outbreaks. As a result, it will take some time to rebuild confidence in hog breeding, and later demand will remain gloomy after a continuous drop in live hog and sow numbers. And the spots market is thus curbed. Besides, China has bought 65,000 tonnes of US sorghum, the first purchase since August last year. And amid trade talks between Beijing and Washington, participants can keep a close watch on whether China will open its market for US agricultural products. Generally, port sorghum and barley markets are predicted to keep steady with some fluctuations in the short term.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
