Today (Mar. 19th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price stays stable with some rises today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered and the GM old soybean rises by 30 yuan/tonne from yesterday to settle at 3,990 yuan/tonne, and non-GM Russian soybean is unchanged at 3,190 yuan/tonne from yesterday and the GM is not offered. The soybean supply in China may increase due to the China's active purchase of South America soybean amid the over 60% harvest and smooth harvest progress for Brazilian soybeans. And the turnover of imported soybeans for distribution in China is still tepid to the detriment of the market of imported soybeans for distribution. Moreover, it's reported that the U.S.-China summit will be delayed again and it may be held during June to sign an agreement. With the uncertainty of U.S.-China trade talks, imported soybean prices in distribution market will fluctuate at a narrow range in the short run.
Cottonseed: Today some cottonseed prices see a decline of 0.02 kg/tonne. The cottonseed trade is thin and cautious for cottonseed crush suffers losses and the stocks in some cottonseed oil mills are still enough, especially when the meal demand is poor under the spread of African swine fever. However, due to the cotton ginning mills' mindset to hold onto goods for higher prices amid low operation rates in cotton ginning mills and cottonseed shortage, the price decline is limited. Short-term cottonseed is likely to fluctuate at a narrow range and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean pointed to further loss overnight, and oil futures also fall again on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the physicals, soybean oil and palm oil post a partial loss of 10-20 yuan/tonne in light trade. Soybean arrivals will probably run up to 8.5 Mln tonnes in April as Chinese buyers keep scooping up on South American crops for good crush margins, in addition to continuous purchase of oils. But soybean oil inventory has piled up to 1.38 Mln tonnes amid slack demand. Therefore, oil market has been under pressure for its unfavorable fundamentals. However, the market is still supported by the tactic of buying oils and selling meals as soybean meal is still subject to the ASF. Overall, short-term oil market will be little changed and will fluctuate frequently on the back of its futures, so buyers can keep light stocks while waiting for the guidance form US-China trade talks and China-Canada relations.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,430-5,580 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, down by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,490-5,500, Rizhao 5,520, Zhangjiagang 5,580, and Guangzhou 5,430-5,440).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,340-4,480 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 20 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 4,470-4,480, unchanged; Rizhao 4,460, unchanged; Zhangjiagang 4,400, down 20; Guangzhou 4,340; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil rises in price today, of which it goes up 40-50 yuan/tonne to 6,860-6,950 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian and Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 6,950, up 50). US soybean fell further overnight upon technical selling and no fresh progress from US-China trade talks, but rapeseed oil futures post another gain on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today amid growing concerns over rapeseed and rapeseed oil cargoes unable to dock for unloading due to commodity inspections. Rapeseed oil inventory has continued to drop this week since rapeseed crush has declined to a low level of 40,000 tonnes for swelling rapeseed meal stockpiles and rapeseed shortages. Meanwhile, there is hardly a thaw between Beijing and Ottawa before the extradition hearing against HUAWEI Technology Meng Wanzhou in May, especially when the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump could be postponed to July instead of April. Therefore, rapeseed oil will probably keep firm. But rapeseed oil demand is still subject to its enlarged spread with soybean oil and palm oil, whose inventories have kept growing. Overall, price rises now depend mostly on tensions between China and Canada, and buyers are suggested to buy on demand and avoid risks from forcing up rices.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil prices today weakly fluctuate 30-60 yuan/tonne. The market is dragged down when cottonseed oil volume for blending is not much; oils market is thin; US soybeans overnight show a another decline; today oils on DCE fall back again; some soybean oil and palm oil spots drop 10-20 yuan/tonne. However the low operation rates and output in cottonseed oil mills are supportive of prices and curb the decline. Short-term prices are likely to stay the weak trend and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.72)
