Today (Mar. 20th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price rises today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean rises by 30 yuan/tonne from yesterday to settle at 4,020 yuan/tonne, and non-GM Russian soybean rises by 80 yuan/tonne from yesterday to settle at 3,270 yuan/tonne from yesterday and the GM is not offered. The soybean at Tianjin port from both Canada and Russia sees a rise due to the good demand and insufficient supply. However, the imported soybean is not likely to keep rising a lot as China's imports will increase later when China has purchase 20 vessels of Brazilian soybeans last week and U.S. Secretary of Agriculture said China's agricultural products purchase from U.S. would increase three times. Besides, U.S. trade representatives will fly to Beijing the week of March 25 to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who will pay a return trip to Washington, D.C. the following week, with both sides striving to reach a deal by the end of April, although the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump could be delayed until June. Overall, as the uncertainty of U.S.-China trade talks, imported soybean prices in distribution market is predicted to stay stable and strong.
Cottonseed: Today some cottonseed prices see a decline of 0.02 kg/tonne as the cottonseed trade is thin and cautious for cottonseed crush suffers losses and the stocks in some cottonseed oil mills are still enough, especially when the meal demand is poor under the spread of African swine fever. However, due to the cotton ginning mills' mindset to hold onto goods for higher prices amid low operation rates in cotton ginning mills and cottonseed shortage, the price decline is limited. Short-term cottonseed is likely to fluctuate at a narrow range and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean dropped slightly overnight, but oil futures edge up in choppy trading on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spots markets, soybean oil and palm oil both steadily fluctuate by 10-30 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Oil market continues to get support from the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals amid lingering impacts of the ASF on soybean meal. But U.S. Agriculture Secretary said China could as much as triple its purchases of American farm goods, and soybean imports from South America are estimated at 8.50 Mln tonnes in April due to good crush margins, in addition to continuous purchase of imported oils, whilst domestic soybean oil inventory has increased to 1.38 Mln tonnes under delicate demand. Oil market thus has little rebound impetus amid negative fundamentals. However, U.S. trade representatives will fly to Beijing the week of March 25 to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who will pay a return trip to Washington, D.C. the following week, with both sides striving to reach a deal by the end of April, although the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump could be delayed until June. On the whole, short-term oil market will extend its narrow fluctuations, so buyers can just keep light stockpiles.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,440-5,590 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,480-5,490, Rizhao 5,510, Zhangjiagang 5,590, and Guangzhou 5,440-5,450).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,370-4,490 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 4,480-4,490, up 10; Rizhao 4,480, up 20; Zhangjiagang 4,430, up 30; Guangzhou 4,370; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil rises in price today, of which it settles up by 50-70 yuan/tonne at 6,800-6,890 yuan/tonne. (Fujian and Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 7,000, up 50). US soybean fell again last night, and rapeseed oil futures snap off gains to fall on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today after two foreign-owned firms and River & Ocean Ceroils obtained Automatic Import License. Currently, oil inventories have been choked up amid sluggish demand, and rapeseed oil market has got even quieter due to its sharply enlarged spread with soybean oil and palm oil. In addition, soybean imports keep growing amid good crush margins, and China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will grant a batch of GMO certificates later this month. Besides, US and China will restart a fresh round of trade talks in Beijing on the week of 25th for a deal by the end of April, whose success will likely bring a thaw to China and Canada. Therefore, short-term rapeseed oil market will follow its futures to adjust in fluctuation, and it will probably get supports from supply tensions in case of no rapeseed cargo after May, so buyers can wait for the moment.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable with a decline of 50-100 yuan/tonne as the limited cottonseed oil volume for blending and the light turnover in oils market. However, U.S. soybeans overnight slip a bit, today oils on DCE rise slightly with fluctuations and soybean oil and palm oil spots stay stable with fluctuations in the range of 10-30 yuan/tonne. Add that the low operation rates and output in cottonseed oil mills and all these are supportive of prices and curb the decline. Short-term prices are likely to stay the weak trend and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
