Today (Mar. 22nd), the market for grains in China is shown as follows:
Corn: Domestic corn prices remain stable with some small decline today. The price prevails at 1,848-1,960 yuan/tonne in Shandong, some further down by 4-10 yuan/tonne. At Jinzhou port, Liaoning, 2018 new corn with 15% moisture of volume weight over 700 g/L remains unchanged at 1,750-1,760 yuan/tonne, and 20% moisture rise 10 yuan/tonne to settle at 1,650 yuan/tonne from yesterday. At Bayuquan port, 2018 new corn is priced steadily at 1,750 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L). At Shekou port, Guangdong, second-class new corn is unchanged at 1,880 yuan/tonne.
Surplus corn supply remains adequate as Northeastern traders begin to go bottom fishing to hoard with corn prices forming a bottom from this round of declines. Moreover, its supply will increase since there is news that a 700,000-tonne of imported corn will arrive at ports gradually from March to April. According to the latest news, Sinograin in Jilin will make an auction of 61,000 corns to increase the supply on March 27. But on the demand side, further processing companies still remain cautious in buying, and feed factories take hand-to-mouth buying under historical low hog replenishment amid the rampant ASF. However, local government in Northeastern regions has launched one-time reserves, and planters tend to hoard to prop up prices in view of quick drops of their stockpiles. Therefore, adding that the rain and snow weather in Northeast China and the prices are supportive. In the short run, corn is likely to stay stable with small adjustment and the supply situation should be paid attention. By the way, China and the United States will strive to hammer out a trade deal by the end of April, so participants can watch closely at the result.
Sorghum:
Imported sorghum prices stay stable today. (US sorghum: raw sorghum is 2,120 yuan/tonne in Shanghai, 2,120 in Nantong, and not offered for out of stock in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong. Australian sorghum: raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,180 yuan/tonne in Tianjin, 2,180 in Shanghai, 2,200 in Qingdao and and 2,280 in Nantong; dried sorghum levels off at 2,270 yuan/tonne in Tianjin and 2,320 in Qingdao.
Domestic sorghum prices stay stable today: In Inner Mongolia, raw sorghum and dried sorghum remain unchanged at 1,920 and 2,000 yuan/tonne in Hinggan League; raw sorghum and dried sorghum are priced steadily at 1,940 and 2,080 yuan/tonne in Chifeng; and raw sorghum is priced steadily at 1,960 yuan/tonne in Tongliao. In Jilin Province, dried sorghum with freight is priced steadily at 2,160 yuan/tonne in Changchun, raw sorghum sacks and dried sorghum with freight are both at 2,060 yuan/tonne in Songyuan, bulk dried sorghum with freight is 2,120 yuan/tonne in Baicheng, and raw sorghum is unchanged at 1,900 yuan/tonne and dried sorghum sacks at 1,980 yuan/tonne in Taonan. In Heilongjiang Province, dried sorghum with freight stays at 1,840 yuan/tonne in Qiqihar; raw sorghum and dried sorghum with freight are priced steadily at 1,880 yuan/tonne and 1,960 yuan/tonne in Daqing, and dried sorghum with freight is at 1,960-2,000 yuan/tonne in Heihe. In Shanxi Province, raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,100 yuan/tonne in Yuncheng, bulk dried sorghum with freight is priced steadily at 2,160 yuan/tonne in Jinzhong, and raw sorghum with freight and dried sorghum with freight remain unchanged at 1,960 and 2,160 yuan/tonne in Xinzhou.
Barley: Barley prices stay stable. (Australian barley: raw sorghum remains unchanged at 2,230 yuan/tonne in Qingdao and and bulk raw sorghum is priced steadily at 2,230 in Nantong; Canadian barley: raw barley is unchanged at 2,120 yuan/tonne in Nantong; French barley: raw barley is 2,090-2,100 yuan/tonne in Nantong; Ukrainian barley: not offered in Guangdong).
Grain market is now firmly supported by strained supply of port US sorghum and high cost of Australian sorghum. And port barley has held low inventories when import cost for Australian Barley stays stubbornly high. Therefore, importers with storage in hand tend to prop up prices. But port sorghum and barley have lost their price advantage against corn as its energy feed substitute. Data by China’s Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs showed that 114 outbreaks (111 for hog and 3 for wild boar) of the ASF were reported in 27 provinces, with 916,000 pigs reportedly culled. The ASF has roiled the original tendency of domestic pig feeding as retail investors holding small and medium-sized farms have quickened their pace to exit this industry and eliminated breeding sows, whose scenario is quite obvious in provinces with frequent outbreaks. As a result, it will take some time to rebuild confidence in hog breeding, and later demand will remain gloomy after a continuous drop in live hog and sow numbers. And the spots market is thus curbed. Besides, U.S. representatives will arrive in Beijing on 25th this month for trade talks and then China's vice-premier Liu He will visit Washington in return a week after that. The agreements are expected to be reached by the end of April but the U.S.-China summit may be postponed to June. Moreover, China has bought 65,000 tonnes of US sorghum, the first purchase since August last year. And amid trade talks between Beijing and Washington, participants can keep a close watch on whether China will open its market for US agricultural products. Generally, port sorghum and barley markets are predicted to keep steady with some fluctuations in the short term.
(USD $1=CNY 6.70)
