Today (Mar. 25th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price stays stable today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean is unchanged at 4,020 yuan/tonne from last Friday, and non-GM Russian soybean is unchanged at 3,270 yuan/tonne from last Friday and the GM is not offered. Brazilian soybeans harvest is 63% complete, new batches of soybeans appearing on the market and the Argentina's soybean crop harvest is expect to be bumper. In global market, the supply of soybean continues to grow and the supply for China's market is also likely to go up later to the detriment of imported soybean prices in distribution market amid tepid demand. China's Vice-Premier Liu He will visit the U.S. on April 3 on the heels of the new round U.S.-China trade talks in Beijing this week. As the trade talks' uncertainty from the disagreement for the complete removal of additional tariffs by the U.S., market has held a wait-and-see attitude and imported soybean prices in distribution market is predicted to fluctuate in a limited range for the short run.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today weakly fluctuate 0.02-0.05 yuan/kg. Due to poor crush margin and relatively sufficient stock, cottonseed oil mills are cautious in purchasing cottonseed amid the tepid demand of cottonseed oil and meal. However, the cottonseed decline is limited by the cotton ginning mills' mindset to hold onto goods for the low operation rates in cotton ginning mills and cottonseed shortage. Short-term cottonseed is likely to fluctuate at a narrow range and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean closed with losses last Friday on bumper harvests of Brazilian crops, and oil futures continue to fall on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today for the arbitrage of buying meals and selling oils. In the physicals, soybean oil and palm oil slip by 20-50 yuan/tonne in delicate trading. While soybean arrivals will hit 8.30 Mln tonnes in April, soybean oil has piled up to 1.38 Mln tonnes amid slack demand and palm oil purchase has added up to 23 cargoes in April. The most-active soybean oil futures on the DCE fall below 5,450 on excessive supply pressure. Hence, short-term oil market will probably go weak in fluctuation. By the way, US-China trade talk is heading for uncertainties as the United States insisted on leaving additional tariffs on Chinese imports. Participants can pay attention to US-China trade talks on March 28 and 29 in Beijing and April 3 in Washington D.C., and buyers can just maintain light stocks.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,350-5,550 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, down by 20-50 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,430-5,440, Rizhao 5,450, Zhangjiagang 5,550, and Guangzhou 5,350-5,360).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,330-4,460 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 30-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 4,450-4,460, down 30; Rizhao 4,450, down 30; Zhangjiagang 4,440, down 30; Guangzhou 4,330, down 40; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil rises today, of which it settles up by 30-50 yuan at 6,930-7,020 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian and Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 7,050, stable). Rapeseed oil inventory has declined by 8% to 440,000 tonnes in coastal areas last week, and rapeseed supply will probably get tightened in May and even disconnected in June amid intensive cancellation of April and May shipments if Beijing and Ottawa cannot ease their tensions. And there are hype factors in market, like the delay of a meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump to at least late April or even June, and the uncertainty between China and Canada before the extradition hearing against Meng Wanzhou in May. So rapeseed oil market is predicted to keep firm. But it has been quiet recently due to its enlarged spread with soybean oil and palm oil. Overall, buyers are suggested to strengthen risk prevention amid uncertain state policies.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable with partial decline of 50-100 yuan/tonne when the cottonseed oil volume for blending is not much; the turnover in oils market is thin; arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals pushes oils on DCE today to further fall back; soybean oil and palm oil spots drop 20-50 yuan/tonne. However, cottonseed oil prices in most regions holds stable currently with the low operation rates and output in cottonseed oil mills. Bulk oils is slack and the weak trend of short-term cottonseed oil is likely to remain the same. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
