Today (Mar. 25th), the market for grains in China is shown as follows:
Corn: Domestic corn prices remain stable with slight declines today. The price prevails at 1,834-1,950 yuan/tonne in Shandong, another loss of 4-24 yuan/tonne from last Friday. At Jinzhou port, Liaoning, 2018 new corn with 15% moisture of volume weight over 700 g/L goes down by 5 yuan to 1,750-1,755 yuan/tonne, and 20% moisture levels off at 1,650 yuan/tonne. At Bayuquan port, 2018 new corn is priced lower by 5-15 yuan at 1,735-1,745 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L). At Shekou port, Guangdong, second-class new corn is unchanged at 1,880 yuan/tonne.
Corn spots market is now be buffeted by growing supply from both at home and abroad. On one hand, Jilin Sinograin will launch an auction of 61,000 tonnes of corn on March27th; on the other, Ukrainian corn will arrive at ports substantially in March and April, and US exporters have sold some 300,000 tonnes of corn to China, according to latest news on last Friday. Meanwhile, downstream processing companies still remain cautious in purchasing, and feed firms also take hand-to-mouth buying amid the ASF, which has hindered live hog market and slashed hog herd. Therefore, corn market is curbed by weak demand to fall, leading to a price fall of 4-20 yuan/tonne today. However, one-time reserve has been carried out at full swing in Northeast China, so the downside potential is confined by favorable policies. On the whole, short-term corn prices will probably stay stable with slight declines. Participants can focus on its supply and demand, as well as US-China trade talks aimed for a deal by the end of April.
Sorghum:
Imported sorghum prices stay stable today. (US sorghum: raw sorghum is 2,120 yuan/tonne in Shanghai, 2,120 in Nantong, and not offered for out of stock in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong. Australian sorghum: raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,180 yuan/tonne in Tianjin, 2,180 in Shanghai, 2,200 in Qingdao and and 2,280 in Nantong; dried sorghum levels off at 2,270 yuan/tonne in Tianjin and 2,320 in Qingdao.
Domestic sorghum prices stay stable today: In Inner Mongolia, raw sorghum and dried sorghum remain unchanged at 1,920 and 2,000 yuan/tonne in Hinggan League; raw sorghum and dried sorghum are priced steadily at 1,940 and 2,080 yuan/tonne in Chifeng; and raw sorghum is priced steadily at 1,960 yuan/tonne in Tongliao. In Jilin Province, dried sorghum with freight is priced steadily at 2,160 yuan/tonne in Changchun, raw sorghum sacks and dried sorghum with freight are both at 2,000 yuan/tonne in Songyuan, bulk dried sorghum with freight is 2,120 yuan/tonne in Baicheng, and raw sorghum is unchanged at 1,900 yuan/tonne and dried sorghum sacks at 1,980 yuan/tonne in Taonan. In Heilongjiang Province, dried sorghum with freight stays at 1,840 yuan/tonne in Qiqihar; raw sorghum and dried sorghum with freight are priced steadily at 1,880 yuan/tonne and 1,960 yuan/tonne in Daqing, and dried sorghum with freight is unchanged at 2,000 yuan/tonne in Heihe. In Shanxi Province, raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,100 yuan/tonne in Yuncheng, bulk dried sorghum with freight is priced steadily at 2,160 yuan/tonne in Jinzhong, and raw sorghum with freight and dried sorghum with freight remain unchanged at 1,960 and 2,160 yuan/tonne in Xinzhou.
Barley: Barley prices go up today. (Australian barley: raw sorghum remains unchanged at 2,230 yuan/tonne in Qingdao and and bulk raw sorghum is priced steadily at 2,230 in Nantong; Canadian barley: raw barley is priced higher by 30 yuan at 2,150 yuan/tonne in Nantong, and remain unchanged at 2120-2130 yuan/tonne in Qingdao; French barley: raw barley is 2,090-2,100 yuan/tonne in Nantong; Ukrainian barley: not offered in Guangdong).
Grain market is now firmly supported by strained supply of port US sorghum and high cost of Australian sorghum. And port barley has held low inventories when import cost for Australian Barley stays stubbornly high. Therefore, importers with storage in hand tend to prop up prices. But port sorghum and barley have lost their price advantage against corn as its energy feed substitute. Data by China’s Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs showed that 114 outbreaks (111 for hog and 3 for wild boar) of the ASF were reported in 27 provinces, with 916,000 pigs reportedly culled. The ASF has roiled the original tendency of domestic pig feeding as retail investors holding small and medium-sized farms have quickened their pace to exit this industry and eliminated breeding sows, whose scenario is quite obvious in provinces with frequent outbreaks. As a result, it will take some time to rebuild confidence in hog breeding, and later demand will remain gloomy after a continuous drop in live hog and sow numbers. And the spots market is thus curbed. Besides, U.S. trade representatives will fly to Beijing the week of March 25 to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who will pay a return trip to Washington, D.C. the following week, with both sides striving to reach a deal by the end of April, , although the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump could be delayed until June. In addition, China has bought 65,000 tonnes of US sorghum, the first purchase since August last year. And amid trade talks between Beijing and Washington, participants can keep a close watch on whether China will open its market for US agricultural products. Generally, port sorghum and barley markets are predicted to keep steady with some fluctuations in the short term.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
