Today (Mar. 25th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean closed lower last Friday, and meal futures fluctuate fractionally on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots go ups and downs by 10-20 yuan/tonne in light trading with some deals at low prices. Specifically, the prices range from 2,510 to 2,570 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,530, Shandong 2,510-2,570, Jiangsu 2,510-2,560, Dongguan 2,520-2,570, and Guangxi 2,520-2,560). South American farmers are marketing their soybeans at full steam, sending imported soybean arrivals to expedite gradually. But live hog herd has been crippled by the ASF, and downstream buyers will spend some spells digesting their stockpiles. Therefore, there is limited space for soybean meal prices to rebound. However, US-China trade talk is heading for uncertainties as the United States insisted on leaving additional tariffs on Chinese imports. And soybean supply will also get tightened in early April. Overall, soybean meal will remain resilient in the short term and may fluctuate narrowly. Participants can pay attention to US-China trade talks on March 28th and 29th in Beijing and on April 3rd in Washington D.C..
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal is priced lower today, of which it settles down by 20-30 yuan at 2,150-2,200 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,150, down 30; Guangdong 2,150, down 20; and Fujian 2,200, down 20). The rampant ASF has curbed demand for meal products, and rapeseed meal market is further slashed by its narrowed spread with soybean meal; hence, its price has come under pressure now. But its inventory has fallen by 21% weekly to 35,000 tonnes in coastal areas, and most rapeseed cargoes have been canceled for April and May shipments, with only two left in April. If tensions between Beijing and Ottawa keep souring, imported rapeseed supply will be tightened in May and even disconnected in June. On the whole, rapeseed meal market will have limited downside space and will likely consolidate in narrow fluctuation following its futures, so buyers can buy on demand for the moment.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is priced higher and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is priced higher by 200 yuan at 9,700-10,000 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, steadily at 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and higher by 100-300 yuan at 10,800-11,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 74,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 62,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal consumption is limited, as domestic aquaculture is still in dormancy period and the ASF is wrecking havoc. Moreover, its inventory at port has piled up to 187,000 tonnes with new cargoes from Peru. Most holders have stopped offering today aimed at reducing losses. Overall, short-term fishmeal market will probably go stable.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are stable with some prices weakly down 10-50 yuan/tonne. The outlook for cottonseed meal demand is pessimistic as the number of live hogs in breeding has fallen dramatically with the spread of African swine fever and the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal increases in feed factory with the narrow price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. However, the decline is curbed when the operation rate in cottonseed oil mills is low; meals on DCE today fluctuate in small range with soybean meal spots fluctuating 10-20 yuan/tonne; soybean meal prices is resilient. But given the poor demand, short-term prices are likely to fluctuate weakly. Buyers could take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
