Today (Mar. 21st), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean inched higher overnight, and meal futures fluctuate within a narrow range on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne steadily in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,480-2,570 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,530, Shandong 2,500-2,560, Jiangsu 2,480-2,570, Dongguan 2,480-2,570, and Guangxi 2,520-2,540). Soybean meal has entered into slow shipments since the ASF has steeply downsized the hog herd and downstream buyers will spend some time digesting their stockpiles after intensive replenishment earlier last month, whilst soybean arrivals will amount to 8.50 Mln tonnes in April. Therefore, soybean meal snaps off its gains to adjust in fluctuation. However, it has almost eliminated its inventory pressure after recent strong trading, bringing a 9% drop year on year to 640,000 tonnes in coastal areas and even creating a scene of shipment overdue in some Northern and Shandong regions. Meanwhile, soybean inventory has also declined by 23% year on year to 3.86 Mln tonnes in coastal areas. With oil mill propping up prices, short-term soybean meal will remain resilient and probably follow its futures to fluctuate narrowly. It is very likely that a deal will be hammered out between Beijing and Washington, and if so, the market will be pessimistic in middle to long term. But it is hard to see any agreement by the end of April, in addition to soybean supply tensions, so buyers are suggested not to go short on near-month meal prices, instead, buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal steps down today, of which it settles down by 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,130-2,180 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,140, down 10; Guangdong 2,140, down 20; and Fujian 2,180, down 20). Rapeseed meal was slashed in aquatic feed due to its narrowed price spread with soybean meal, so that its price is weak to rise for a lack of demand supports and for price caps of soybean meal. In the near run, it will probably fluctuate at a marrow range. Amid strained tensions between Beijing and Ottawa, there is no rapeseed cargo after May till now. And this will give support to rapeseed meal price. But it is very likely that a deal will be hammered out between Beijing and Washington, and if so, rapeseed meal market will remain pessimistic for a possible thaw in relationship between China and Canada.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal stays table in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it remains at 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 75,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 62,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal market has been in tepid trading due to low prices of freshwater fish and reduced pig amount under the rampant ASF, and its port inventory has amounted to 189,000 tonnes with new arrivals from Peru. But market participants tend to wait in view of price inversion at home and abroad and price hikes among holders. Overall, fishmeal market will be little changed in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable when the operation rate in cottonseed oil mill is low; US soybeans overnight rose a bit; today meals on DCE fluctuate in a small range; soybean meal spots are stable with fluctuations of 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, the meals demand is poor as the number of live hogs in breeding has fallen dramatically with the spread of African swine fever. And the cottonseed meal demand also is pessimistic for the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, and the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal increases in feed factory. So short-term prices are likely to fluctuate weakly and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.68)
