Today (Mar. 20th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Meal futures fall again on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today on the back of another loss of US soybean in overnight trading. Soybean meal spots slip by 10-30 yuan/tonne with fewer deals. Specifically, the price settles in the range of 2,480-2,580 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,530, Shandong 2,500-2,520, Jiangsu 2,510-2,580, Dongguan 2,480-2,580, and Guangxi 2,520-2,550). U.S. Agriculture Secretary said China could as much as triple its purchases of American farm goods. And the ASF has resulted in low replenishment of live pigs. Soybean meal market thus falls bearish. But soybean meal has enjoyed a greater share in feedstuff due to its unexpectedly smaller spread with alternative meals, which offsets its reduced demand amid the ASF. Therefore, soybean meal has seen a strong trading volume since March, coupled by declining weekly crush volume of 1.50 Mln tonnes in recent two weeks, so it has almost eased inventory pressure and even run short in some Northern and Shandong regions, creating a scene of shipment overdue. Therefore, short-term soybean meal is resilient at the moment. However, U.S. trade representatives will fly to Beijing the week of March 25 to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who will pay a return trip to Washington, D.C. the following week, with both sides striving to reach a deal by the end of April, although the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump could be delayed until June. Amid growing chance for a trade agreement and increasing soybean imports in April under the ASF, soybean meal will likely get pessimistic in middle to long trend, so buyers can wait for the moment.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines in price today, of which it settles down by 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,150-2,200 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,150, down 20; Guangxong 2,160, down 10; and Fujian 2,200, down 20). Amid reduced demand for meals amid the rampant ASF, rapeseed meal has worse taken up a smaller part in a range of 5%-8% and even be given up in aquatic feed due to its excessively spread with soybean meal, and it has been totally supplanted in poultry feedstuff. Besides, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will grant a batch of GMO certificates later this month. And US and China will restart a fresh round of trade talks in Beijing on the week of 25th for a deal by the end of April, whose success will likely bring a thaw to China and Canada. Overall, rapeseed meal is forced to reverse its rises to decline on the back of its futures, but it may be shored up by supply tensions for no rapeseed cargo after May. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal stays table in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it remains at 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 74,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 61,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market is now bolstered by firm quotation abroad and price inversion at home, but its demand remains delicate amid low prices of freshwater fish and reduced pig amount under the rampant ASF. Moreover, holders have become more willing to sell in view of supply gluts under growing stockpiles with new arrivals from Peru. Overall, fishmeal market will be little changed in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal mostly stays stable with a decline of 50 yuan/tonne for some prices. The meals demand is poor as the number of live hogs in breeding has fallen dramatically with the spread of African swine fever. As the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is narrowed, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal increases in feed factory. Moreover, today meals on DCE further decline and soybean meal spots drop 10-30 yuan/tonne, which drags cottonseed meal down. Nevertheless, the price decline is curbed by the low operation rates in cottonseed oil mills. Short-term prices are likely to fluctuate weakly and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
