Today (Mar. 18th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean closed higher last Friday, but meal futures fluctuate to edge down on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots steadily go ups and downs within 10-20 yuan/tonne in lighter trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,520-2,600 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,550, Shandong 2,540-2,570, Jiangsu 2,550-2,600, Dongguan 2,520-2,600, and Guangxi 2,550-2,580). Soybean arrivals get an obvious increment in the second quarter as Chinese importers are active in scooping up on South American soybean for its good crush margins. Soybean meal market is still subject to the ASF that has led to a sharp drop in live hog replenishment. But its small price difference with alternative meals has increased its share in feed formula, which partly offsets the damage caused by the ASF. The trading remains strong entering March, and the crush volume has fallen to around 1.50 Mln tonnes this week amid declining operation rate; thus, soybean meal has almost eased its inventory pressure and even run short in some Northern and Shandong regions, creating a scene of shipment overdue. Therefore, short-term soybean meal is resilient at the moment, and the middle-to-long term trend will be pessimistic for bearish supply and demand factor. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines amid adjustments of futures.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises in price today, of which it goes up by 30-40 yuan/tonne to peg at 2,160-2,210 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,160, up 30; Guangdong 2,160, up 40; and Fujian 2,210, up 40). US soybean rose lat Friday. And rapeseed cargoes remain only two left for April shipment and zero for May amid intensive cancellation, so imported rapeseed supply will probably get tightened in May and run short in July amid rocky tensions between Beijing and Ottawa. Besides, rapeseed meal inventory has dropped by 4% to 45,000 tonnes in coastal areas last week. Therefore, rapeseed meal is shored up to step up modestly on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. But rapeseed meal demand is now severely crippled by the rampant ASF and a 330 yuan/tonne price difference with soybean meal, and its share in aquatic feed will likely drop within 5-8% later. Meanwhile, it is now gradually supplanted in duck feedstuff amid growing imports of sunflower meal. In such case, rapeseed meal will find little room to rebound and may follow futures to fluctuate narrowly, so buyers can buy on demand for the moment.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal stays table in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it remains at 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 73,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 60,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market is now bolstered by firm quotation abroad and price inversion at home, but its demand remains delicate low prices of freshwater fish and frequent outbreaks of the ASF. Moreover, holders have become more willing to sell in view of supply gluts under growing stockpiles with new arrivals from Peru. Overall, fishmeal market will be little changed in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today weakly fluctuate 10-50 yuan/tonne. The meals demand is poor as the number of live hogs in breeding has fallen dramatically with the spread of African swine fever. As the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is narrowed, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal increases in feed factory. Moreover, today meals on DCE decline slightly with fluctuations and soybean meal spots are stable with fluctuations of 10-20 yuan/tonne, which drags cottonseed meal down. Nevertheless, the price decline is curbed by the low operation rates in cottonseed oil mills. Short-term prices are likely to fluctuate weakly and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.72)
