Today (Mar. 26th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: On the back of gains by US soybean overnight and meal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, soybean meal spots goes up by 10-20 yuan/tonne to clinch fewer deals than yesterday. Specifically, the price settles at 2,530-2,570 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,530, Shandong 2,530-2,570, Jiangsu 2,520-2,540, Dongguan 2,520-2,550, and Guangxi 2,530-2,560). Soybean meal has enjoyed a greater share in feed due to its narrowing spread with alternative meals, which has partially offset demand cuts under the ASF. Moreover, its supply has been tight in Northern regions, Shandong and Guangdong. Soybean meal price is thus buoyed. But half-harvested Brazilian soybean are hitting the market, so that US soybean market turns negative on worries over its waning demand on the occasion of bumper crops in South America. Domestic feed enterprises are now digesting their stockpiles, and soybean arrivals will increase to 8.30 Mln tonnes in April and to over 9.0 Mln tonnes separately in May and June. So there will be limited room for rebounds. On the whole, short-term soybean meal will be resilient and may fluctuate at a narrow range. Participants can watch closely on progress in trade talks.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal stays stable with small declines today, of which it settles down by 10 yuan/tonne at 2,140-2,200 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,140, down 10; Guangdong 2,150, stable; and Fujian 2,200, stable). On one hand, meal price is propped up by inventory reduction of soybean meal and rapeseed meal last week. In particular, later rapeseed supply is predicted to get tightened since its cargoes have all been canceled for May shipments amid tensions between Beijing and Ottawa, and US sticking to leave tariffs on Chinese imports has added to the uncertainty in trade talks. On the other, upside impetus of rapeseed meal is now limited by its consumption due to its narrowing spread with soybean meal, in addition to the ASF and growing soybean imports in the second quarter. Overall, rapeseed meal market will fluctuate at a narrow range to adjust in the short run.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is priced higher further and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is priced higher by 100-200 yuan at 9,800-10,000 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, steadily at 10,200 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, higher by 200 yuan at 10,500-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and higher by 100 yuan at 10,800-11,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 74,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 62,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spots (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Holders are encouraged to raise the price by firm offer in foreign market, which directly gives supports to domestic market. However, domestic aquaculture has yet recovered, in addition to impacts from the ASF, so fishmeal has seen limited consumption. Moreover, inventory pressure at port will keep growing with new arrivals from Peru. In this case, short-term domestic fishmeal market perhaps will stay stable to consolidate.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are mostly stable with some prices down 20-40 yuan/tonne. The outlook for cottonseed meal demand is pessimistic as the number of live hogs in breeding has fallen dramatically with the spread of African swine fever and the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal increases in feed factory with the narrow price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal. However, the decline is curbed when the operation rate in cottonseed oil mills is low; meals on DCE today lift a bit with soybean meal spots up by 10-20 yuan/tonne; soybean meal prices are resistant against dropping. But given the poor demand, short-term prices are likely to fluctuate weakly. Buyers could stay on the sideline for the present.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
