Today (Mar. 13th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean rebounded in overnight trading, and meal futures also point to gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots rise by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some deals at low prices and upon low far-month basis. Specifically, the price settles at 2,470-2,520 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,510, Shandong 2,470-2,490, Jiangsu 2,480-2,500, Dongguan 2,490-2,510, and Guangxi 2,510-2,520). Soybean meal has managed to narrow down its price spread to a historical low level against rapeseed meal, whose price is buoyed by tensions between Beijing and Ottawa, so that feed plants have adjusted their formula by adding more soybean meal. Moreover, downstream buyers have mostly kept low inventories for a bearish market. Consequently, soybean meal inventories have almost got rid of pressure under quick trading last week. And soybean meal thus remains resilient to rebound fractionally today. However, Chinese importers have purchased substantial US soybeans, which will obviously increase its supply in the second quarter. In addition, the ASF is still wreaking havoc. Therefore, there is little room for price hikes. Besides, there is a great probability that China and the United States will hammer out a trade deal, and if so, soybean meal market will be gloomy in the middle to long term. Buyers can just replenish on the dips to maintain proper stocks, rather than chase up prices too high.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal decline today, of which it is 2,110-2,170 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,120, down 10; Guangdong 2,110, down 20; and Fujian 2,170, down 10). Due to its steeply reduced price spread between soybean meal, rapeseed meal is cut down in aquatic feed and even abandoned, and has been totally supplanted in poultry feedstuff. In addition, there is a great probability that Beijing and Washington will strike a trade deal, after which there may be a thaw between Beijing and Ottawa. And China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is expected to issue a batch of certificates after final approvals for GMO products. Overall, short-term rapeseed meal will likely decline on the back of its futures, and buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal stays table with some declines in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it remains at 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 71,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 58,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market is now supported by stable quotation abroad and price inversion at home. But aquaculture is yet to start due to capricious weather in the northern areas and raining conditions in the south, so fishmeal demand remains delicate, whilst holders have become more willing to sell in view of supply gluts under growing stockpiles with new arrivals from Peru. Overall, fishmeal market will adjust to decline slightly in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are stable with a decline of 150 yuan/tonne. Cottonseed meal demand is poor when African swine fever leads the number of live hogs in breeding to a low level; the soybean meal consumption in feed factories is increase amid the record low of the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. However, the decline is limited as the operation rates in cottonseed oil mills are low, and US soybeans overnight rebounded following by the slight rise of meals on DCE as well as a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne for soybean meal spots today.Short-term prices are likely to adjust with downward tendency and buyers can maintain wait-and-see attitudes.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
