Today (Mar. 12th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean extended its loss in overnight trading, and meal futures follow to pare gains amid low opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Soybean meal spots slip to trade light. Specifically, The price sheds by 10-20 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,450-2,500 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,490, Shandong 2,450-2,470, Jiangsu 2,470-2,500, Dongguan 2,480-2,500, and Guangxi 2,510-2,520). USDA confirmed for a second day that China had bought a total of 1.60 Mln tonnes of US soybeans, a sign of a positive outlook in China-US economic and trade talks, so soybean arrivals are bound to increase in the second quarter. Besides, the sweet taste of Australian rapeseed crush also came alive after recent price surges of rapeseed oil and meal, and rapeseed meal futures fell in respond to a purchase of 10,000 tonnes of Australian rapeseed by a Jiangsu private oil mill. Worse still, hog demand is still being devastated by the ASF. Therefore, soybean meal market is forced to reverse rises to slip. But soybean meal was traded well last week as feed factories increased its proportion in their formula on account of its historical low price spread with rapeseed meal, and its inventories thus fell by 6% weekly to 670,000 tonnes. Overall, soybean meal will have limited downside space in the short term, but will remain gloomy in the middle to long term, and buyers can wait on the sidelines.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal slump today, of which it is 2,130-2,180 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 30-50 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,130, down 50; Guangdong 2,130; and Fujian 2,180). The sweet taste of Australian rapeseed crush came alive after recent surges of rapeseed oil and meal futures at home so that a Jiangsu private firm purchased a volume of 10,000 tonnes, and Cofco was said to have got the initial approval for March GMO rapeseed cargoes. Rapeseed meal quickly takes plunge on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange as the bulls exit the market after profit taking. Worse still, price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has been narrowed down, making two large feed enterprises in Guangdong begin to resell their rapeseed meal storage with negative basis. Meanwhile, rapeseed meal has been supplanted by sunflower meal in poultry feedstuff. Without demand support, rapeseed meal is predicted to follow futures to fall, and buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal stays table with some declines in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it remains at 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 70,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 57,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market is now supported by stable quotation abroad and price inversion at home, but the consumption remains light amid unrecovered aquaculture. Moreover, fishmeal stockpiles will keep growing with new arrivals from Peru, so that holder will come under pressure due to supply gluts. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to go weak in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are stable with a decline of 20-100 yuan/tonne as African swine fever pushes the number of live hogs in breeding to a low level; US soybeans overnight fall further and today meals on DCE accordingly open low and fall back; soybean meal spots drop 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, the cottonseed meal decline will be curbed by the low operation rates in cottonseed oil mills and small output of cottonseed meal. Short-term prices is likely to fluctuate and buyer are suggested to stay on the sideline for the present as the outlook is not very good.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
