Today (Mar. 11th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean dropped below 900 cents last Friday on slightly higher-than-expected soybean inventories in USDA’s report for March, but meal futures remain resilient today buoyed by firm rapeseed meal amid strained tensions between Beijing and Ottawa. Soybean meal spots steadily fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne to attract some deals at low prices and upon negative forward basis, but total trading volume is low after most buyers made replenishment last week. Specifically, the price fluctuates by 10-20 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,460-2,520 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,490, Shandong 2,460-2,500, Jiangsu 2,480-2,500, Dongguan 2,490-2,510, and Guangxi 2,510-2,520). Soybean meal has enjoyed a bigger share in feed formula due to its steeply reduced price spread with other alternative meals and its recent trading volume has thus helped ease inventory pressure in oil mills. As a result, its price is shored up to extend moderate rebounds with fluctuations in the near term, but the rebound space is limited by a positive outlook for US-China trade talks, growing soybean arrivals in the second quarter and severely crippled demand under the ASF, and its middle-to-long term trend will also remain gloomy. Buyers are suggested to replenish for proper inventories on the dips, but not to force up prices excessively.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal stays table with some declines in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it remains at 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 70,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 57,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 12,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market is now supported by stable quotation abroad and price inversion at home. But holders will be gradually pressured by supply gluts at port with new arrivals from Peru, in addition to current tepid trading in domestic market. Overall, fishmeal market is predicted to go weak in the near term.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal go up today, of which it is 2,180-2,240 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,180, up 30; Guangdong 2,180; and Fujain not offered). US soybeans last Friday fell due to the technical selling and globally ample supply. However, market becomes more and more worry about the rapeseed supply because the relations between China and Canada are strained, and there was a shipment default separately for both Yihai and Cofco last week; thus, rapeseed futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today led the gain. Today oil mills have stopped offering. The stock of rapeseed meal in coastal areas last week rose to 47,000 tonnes, up by 36%. But rapeseed meal market is quiet and traded light when there is rain for days in Guangdong and Guangxi; the demand for aquaculture has not started yet; the price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is greatly narrowed; the big feed plants in Guangdong, with the mature formula, has adjust the ratio of rapeseed meal to zero, even among which two big plants sell rapeseed meal yet with very small turnover and are said to be only 1,000 tonnes for the turnover; sunflower meal has become a substitute in poultry feed for rapeseed meal. Short-term rapeseed meal is expected to maintain a moderate rebound, yet with limited upward potential due to slack demand. And its mid-to-long term trend still remains gloomy. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are stable with a decline of 10-50 yuan/tonne. The demand of cottonseed meal is weak due to the low level of live hogs in breeding and the increasing soybean meal consumption in feed factories when African swine fever is still spreading in China and the price gap between soybean meal and mixed meals is significantly narrowed. However, the cottonseed meal decline is curbed by the low operation rates in cottonseed oil mills, the small output of cottonseed meal, and the moderate rebound with fluctuations for soybean meal in recent days. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.72)
