Today (Mar. 6th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean closed lower overnight, but meal futures fluctuate to trend up on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots keep steady to fluctuate partially with some deals at low prices and upon negative far-month basis. Specifically, the price fluctuates by 10-20 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,430-2,510 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,460, Shandong 2,430-2,480, Jiangsu 2,440-2,470, Dongguan 2,470-2,480, and Guangxi 2,500-2,510). Soybean meal is traded better recently since feed plants have begun to increase its ratio for its sharply reduced price spread with other alternative meals. Besides, the Canadian government dismissed China’s protest and propelled the extradition process against Meng Wanzhou, and then China’s General Administration of Customs confirmed that Canadian agribusiness Richardson International Ltd’s registration to ship rapeseed to China had been canceled; hence, the market begins to worry about later rapeseed supply. Soybean meal market thus welcomes slight rebound in choppy trading. The Two Sessions underway will cut VAT 10% to 9%, which may help lower down soybean import cost by 30 yuan/tonne. But the cost reduction is too small to make a difference and the ASF still remains as the biggest threat to curb price rises. Soybean meal may maintain its dark trend in the middle to long term, buyers can replenish properly on the dips and negative far-month basis.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal increase slightly today, of which it is 2140-2230 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,140, stable; Guangdong 2,130, up 20; and Fujian not offered). US soybean reversed its gains to inch lower overnight, but rapeseed meal extends gains on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange after China’s General Administration of Customs confirmed that Canadian agribusiness Richardson International Ltd’s registration to ship rapeseed to China had been canceled. More and more oil mills have stopped offering with worries for later supply tensions. Due to a narrower price difference to 320 yuan/tonne between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the later may see its own proportion fall below 8% in aquatic feed and may be abandoned in duck feedstuff in spite of a 1-2% ratio at present. Demand for rapeseed meal will be severely cut later, and the ASF still remains as a bearish factor. Meanwhile, rapeseed meal inventory has been growing due to high operation rate in coastal oil mills. Amid increased expectations for a trade agreement between Beijing and Washington and a thaw between Beijing and Ottawa, short-term rapeseed meal will see limited price rises, and buyers had better not chase prices up too high.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it remains unchanged at 9,800-9,900 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 69,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 55,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 12,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market is now supported by stable quotation abroad and price inversion at home. But port shipment is slow amid the conventionally slack consumption and unrecovered aquaculture. As holders are trying to prop up prices, short-term fishmeal market will broadly stay stable.
Cottonseed meal: Today some cottonseed meal prices see a decline of 30 yuan/tonne. Market is pessimistic about the demand when ASF continues to spread in China. According to Cofeed's investigation, the number of live hogs and sows in Feb. separately declined 8.5% and 15% month on month. However, today meals on DCE rise slightly with fluctuations and the market is supported with limited downward potential as the turnover of soybean meal is better recently, and the operation rates of cottonseed oil mills and the output of cottonseed meal are both low due to stricter inspection for environmental protection during the two sessions. In the short run cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
