Today (Mar. 5th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean closed with gains last night upon an expected agreement between Beijing and Washington, but meal futures have been oscillating fractionally on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today. Soybean meal spots keep steady with some declines and attract some deals at low prices and negative far-month basis, but the overall trading volume is smaller than yesterday. Specifically, the price goes down by 10-20 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,440-2,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,470, Shandong 2,440-2,480, Jiangsu 2,470-2,510, Dongguan 2,460-2,500, and Guangxi 2,500-2,520). Growing expectations for an trade agreement between Washington and Beijing will expand demand for US soybeans. Meanwhile, soybean meal inventory has increased by 10% weekly to 700,000 tonnes, resulting in machine shutdowns in oil mills. But demand for soybean meal has been disappointing since hog herd has been scaled down by frequent outbreaks of the ASF. Therefore, soybean meal market will be weighed down to weak territory. If there were any rebound on the DCE in afternoon trading, buyers could replenish properly on the dips and negative forward basis.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal steadily edge up today, of which it is 2,140-2,220 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up 10 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,140, up 10; Guangdong 2,100; and Fujian not offered). US soybean extended gains in overnight trading upon a soon-to-be-signed agreement between China and the United States, but tensions between China and Canada keep souring after Canada propelled the extradition process against Meng Wanzhou. Some Canadian rapeseed companies have been disqualified for exports to China, and several state-owned enterprises are said to have violated their rapeseed contracts; thus, rapeseed meal is buoyed to continue its rises on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. But the contagious ASF and a narrower price spread of 320 yuan/tonne between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will together lessen demand for rapeseed meal. And with growing imports of sunflower meal, rapeseed meal will be gradually abandoned in duck feedstuff and may be cut down to 10% in aquaculture feed. Besides, any trade agreement between Beijing and Washington will also bring bearish influence to domestic market. Overall, short-term rapeseed meal spots will see limited upward space and will probably maintain its weak status, so buyers are suggested not to force up prices excessively.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it goes up by 200 yuan to 9,800-9,900 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, remains unchanged at 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 69,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 54,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 12,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market is now supported by stable quotation abroad and price inversion at home. But port shipment is slow amid the conventionally slack consumption. As holders are trying to prop up prices, short-term fishmeal market will broadly stay stable.
Cottonseed meal: Today some cottonseed meal prices see a decline of 150 yuan/tonne. Market is pessimistic about the demand when ASF continues to spread in China. According to Cofeed's investigation, the number of live hogs and sows separately declined 8.5% and 15% month on month. Besides, soybean meal spots today fall 10-20 yuan/tonne owing to the rise of soybean meal stock, the increasing machine halt in meal-bloated mills, and the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. Add the rising expectation of U.S.-China compromise and cottonseed meal is weakened with fluctuations and will stay weak in the near term.
(USD $1=CNY 6.70)
