Today (Mar. 28th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean closed with sharp losses in overnight trading on its pressured exports as farmers in Brazil were boosted to gear up their sales with worry over a weaker Brazilian real, and meal futures also post marked declines after low opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Soybean meal spots slip 20-40 yuan/tonne in lighter trading to settle at 2,480-2,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,480, Shandong 2,500-2,520, Jiangsu 2,490-2,500, Dongguan 2,480-2,500, and Guangxi 2,500-2,520). While downstream buyers are still digesting their stockpiles, soybean crush keeps growing in oil mills due to its huge volume arriving at ports from April to June; thus, soybean meal price is curbed. But soybean meal now has accounted for a bigger share in feed due to its narrowing price spread with alternative meals, among which rapeseed meal is cut down to its lowest in aquatic feed, and this has compensated for reduced demand by the ASF. And oil mills are propping up prices in view of tight supply in Northern areas, Shandong and Guangdong. Therefore, short-term soybean meal will post limited downward potential, but its middle-to-long trend remains gloomy amid the spread of the ASF and growing sales of South American soybeans, as well as increased probability of a thaw over US-China trade talks. Buyers can wait on the sidelines.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines today, of which it settles down 30-40 yuan/tonne at 2,140-2,190 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2140, stable; Guangdong 2,150, down 10; and Fujian 2,190, down 40). Rapeseed meal futures snap off gains to fall back on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange as some oil mills have obtained GMO certificates today. Whilst the ASF has been thwarting meal consumption, rapeseed meal market is further weighed on by its narrowing spread with soybean meal, whose price remains low in particular with growing soybean arrivals in the second quarter. But commodity inspection and quarantine by the Customs, rather than GMO certificates, are primary obstacles on substance in rapeseed import. After all, several cargoes of rapeseed and oil are still prevented from being processed and sold, even though one month has passed. Participants can closely watch on progress in trade talks today and tomorrow, and buyers can just wait or buy on demand.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal stays stable with slight rises and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is priced higher by 100 yuan at 9,900-11,000 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, steadily at 10,200 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, at 10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and at 11,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 75,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 63,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market rises today: it goes up by 40 USD/tonne to 1,330 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and up by 20 USD/tonne to 1,580 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Holders are encouraged by price hikes abroad and price inversions at home and abroad, which also gives some supports to domestic market. But domestic aquaculture is yet to recover due to cool temperatures, in addition to reduced live hog amount under the ASF, so fishmeal consumption is slow on the whole. Moreover, its inventory will stay stubbornly high at port with new goods from Peru. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable to consolidate in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are mostly stable with some prices down 20-50 yuan/tonne. The number of live hogs in breeding has fallen dramatically with the spread of African swine fever. As the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal increases in feed factory. Moreover, today meals on DCE fall back greatly with low opens and soybean meal spots drop 20-40 yuan/tonne. All these are negative to cottonseed meal. Nevertheless, cottonseed meal prices mostly holds steady due to the low operation rates in cottonseed oil mills. But given the poor demand, short-term prices are likely to maintain the weak trend. Buyers could maintain wait-and-see attitudes.
(USD $1=CNY 6.74)
