Today (Mar. 29th), the market for grains in China is shown as follows:
Corn: Domestic corn prices broadly stay stable with some declines in Northern areas today. The price prevails at 1,814-1,920 yuan/tonne in Shandong, some down by another 6-10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. At Jinzhou port, Liaoning, 2018 new corn with 15% moisture of volume weight over 700 g/L is unchanged at 1,740-1,750 yuan/tonne, and 20% moisture levels off at 1,650 yuan/tonne. At Bayuquan port, 2018 new corn is priced steadily at 1,730-1,735 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L). At Shekou port, Guangdong, second-class new corn remains unchanged at 1,870-1,880 yuan/tonne.
In addition to large-batch of imported corn reaching ports, intermediate traders also have a backlog of stockpiles, though local farmers have almost completely cleared their barns in Northeastern regions; hence, corn supply is still considerable. But on the demand side, further processing companies tend to rely on their adequate inventories at current low margins, resulting in price declines of 6-10 yuan/tonne in Shandong today. In addition, corn-based feed consumption is also slow as hog herd is scaled back by the ASF, which has stricken a serious blow at live pig market. However, one-time reserve has been carried out at full swing in Northeast China, and local farmers have almost cleared their stockpiles; hence, the market can still received some support. In general, short-term corn market will likely stay stable to go weak, and and participants can pay attention to the pattern of demand and supply and US-China trade talks aimed at reaching a deal by the end of April.
Sorghum:
Imported sorghum prices stay stable today. (US sorghum: raw sorghum is 2,120 yuan/tonne in Shanghai, 2,120 in Nantong, and not offered for out of stock in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong. Australian sorghum: raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,180 yuan/tonne in Tianjin, 2,180 in Shanghai, 2,200 in Qingdao and and 2,280 in Nantong; dried sorghum levels off at 2,270 yuan/tonne in Tianjin and 2,320 in Qingdao.
Domestic sorghum prices hold steady today: In Inner Mongolia, raw sorghum and dried sorghum remain unchanged at 1,920 and 2,000 yuan/tonne in Hinggan League; raw sorghum and dried sorghum are priced steadily at 1,940 and 2,080 yuan/tonne in Chifeng; and raw sorghum is priced steadily at 1,960 yuan/tonne in Tongliao. In Jilin Province, dried sorghum with freight is priced steadily at 2,160 yuan/tonne in Changchun, raw sorghum sacks and dried sorghum with freight are both at 2,000 yuan/tonne in Songyuan, bulk dried sorghum with freight is 2,120 yuan/tonne in Baicheng, and raw sorghum is unchanged at 1,900 yuan/tonne and dried sorghum sacks at 1,980 yuan/tonne in Taonan. In Heilongjiang Province, dried sorghum with freight is unchanged at at 1,860 yuan/tonne in Qiqihar; raw sorghum and dried sorghum with freight are priced steadily at 1,880 yuan/tonne and 1,960 yuan/tonne in Daqing, and dried sorghum with freight is unchanged at 2,000 yuan/tonne in Heihe. In Shanxi Province, raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,100 yuan/tonne in Yuncheng, bulk dried sorghum with freight is priced steadily at 2,160 yuan/tonne in Jinzhong, and raw sorghum with freight and dried sorghum with freight remain unchanged at 1,960 and 2,160 yuan/tonne in Xinzhou.
Barley: Barley prices remain unchanged today. (Australian barley: raw sorghum remains unchanged at 2,230 yuan/tonne in Qingdao and and bulk raw sorghum is priced steadily at 2,230 in Nantong; Canadian barley: raw barley is priced steadily at 2,150 yuan/tonne in Nantong, and remain unchanged at 2120-2130 yuan/tonne in Qingdao; French barley: raw barley is 2,090-2,100 yuan/tonne in Nantong; Ukrainian barley: not offered in Guangdong).
Grain market has received considerable support from strained supply of port US sorghum and high cost of Australian sorghum. And importers with storage in hand tend to prop up prices in view of low barley inventories at ports and stubbornly high cost of Australian barley. Merely, port sorghum and barley have lost their price advantage against corn as its energy feed substitutes. And data from China’s Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs confirmed 114 outbreaks (111 for hog and 3 for wild boar) of the ASF, with more than 916,000 pigs culled in total. This epidemic has roiled the original trend of hog cycle in China, as middle and small farmers withdrew from the market and geared up the elimination of breeding sow stocks since the first outbreak last August, and it has been fiercely cutting the pig number in those provinces reported with more outbreaks. Thus, it will be hard for farmers to rebuild confidence in short time as a fall in live pig and sow stocks has stricken a serious blow at the sector. Given this, grain market will be curbed by its later consumption. Besides, U.S. trade representatives will fly to Beijing the week of March 25 to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who will pay a return trip to Washington, D.C. the following week, with both sides striving to reach a deal by the end of April, , although the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump could be delayed until June. In addition, China has bought 65,000 tonnes of US sorghum, the first purchase since August last year. And amid trade talks between Beijing and Washington, participants can keep a close watch on whether China will open its market for US agricultural products. Generally, port sorghum and barley markets are predicted to keep steady with some fluctuations in the short term.
(USD $1=CNY 6.74)
