Today (Mar. 29th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean edged higher in overnight trading, as China bought about 1.5 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans for shipment in July and August. In China, meal futures still stay around the previous close in spite of further losses after lower opens, and soybean meal spots steadily decline by 10-20 yuan/tonne in tepid trading with some deals on negative forward basis. Specifically, the price settles at 2,460-2,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,460, Shandong 2,480-2,510, Jiangsu 2,460-2,490, Dongguan 2,470-2,500, and Guangxi 2,500-2,520). Brazilian soybean price slipped as farmers were stimulated to accelerate sales by Brazil real collapse, and Chinese oil mills are active in purchase given its handsome crush margins; hence, soybean will arrive in large batches in the second quarter. And feed companies are still digesting their stockpiles after a wave of replenishment, and end consumption of meals has been scrambling amid the ASF, so soybean meal market is curbed. However, soybean meal has accounted for a larger part in feed due to its narrowing spread with alternative meals, which has certainly compensated for reduced demand under the ASF. And oil mills are propping up prices in view of tight supply in Northern areas, Shandong and Guangdong. Therefore, short-term soybean meal market will have limited space for downside, but its middle-to-long trend is still shaded by intensive sales of South American soybeans, slow consumption amid the epidemic and high probability of a thaw between China and the United States. And buyers can wait for steady declines to replenish properly on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines today, of which it settles down 20-30 yuan/tonne at 2,120-2,160 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,140, stable; Guangdong 2,130, down 20; and Fujian 2,170, down 20). US soybean rose overnight as China had bought about 1.50 Mln tonnes of U.S. soybeans, but today rapeseed meal futures extend losses on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on yesterday’s issuance of a batch of GMO rapeseed certificates, in addition that Canadian experts will visit China to discuss issues around rapeseed exports and that Meng Wanzhou is expected to be released. And in the spots market, demand for rapeseed meal has been weak as its ratio in aquatic feed has dropped to a fresh low due to its markedly narrowed spread with soybean meal. Besides, soybean import is growing in the second quarter thanks to its good crush margins, and soybean meal price is now capped when oil mills are still offering with negative forward basis amid crippled demand for protein meals under the ASF. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal has reversed rises to fluctuate. Currently, rapeseed meal price is propped up since there is no Canadian rapeseed cargo reported after May due to ongoing tensions. Later market will depend on when there is a thaw, and its middle-to-long outlook will be gloomy if tensions resolved.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal stays stable and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is steadily at 9,900-10,100 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,200 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and at 11,000-11,100 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 75,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 64,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market holds steady today: it is 1,330 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,580 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. On one hand, domestic fishmeal market has been propped up as holders are encouraged by stable quotation abroad and price inversions at home and abroad. On the other, it is still curbed by stubbornly high inventories at ports and slow consumption amid fallow aquaculture and reduced number of breeding pigs under the ASF. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable to consolidate in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are mostly stable with a decline of 10-40 yuan/tonne. The number of live hogs has fallen dramatically with an epidemic of African swine fever. As the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal increases in feed factory. Moreover, today meals on DCE continue to fall back with low opens and soybean meal spots are stable with a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne. All these are negative to cottonseed meal. Nevertheless, cottonseed meal prices mostly holds steady due to the low operation rates in cottonseed oil mills. But given the poor demand, short-term prices are likely to maintain the weak trend. Buyers could maintain wait-and-see attitudes.
(USD $1=CNY 6.74)
