Today (Apr. 1st), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean closed lower last Friday on its largest quarterly stocks ever and the collapse in corn futures, and meal futures also edge down on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots steadily fall by 10-30 yuan/tonne in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,460-2,510 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,440, Shandong 2,460-2,510, Jiangsu 2,450-2,470, Dongguan 2,470-2,480, and Guangxi 2,500-2,510). US soybean market has been anticipating a rise in planted area as farmers may unwind a significant shift from corn to soybean acres if weather conditions remain unfavorable in April. Moreover, Chinese oil mills are scooping up on Brazilian soybean for handsome crush margins. And the ASF has resulted in slow meal consumption. Therefore, soybean meal market is curbed. However, soybean meal has accounted for a larger part in feed due to its narrowing spread with alternative meals, which has certainly compensated for reduced demand under the ASF. As oil mills are propping up prices, short-term soybean meal market will have limited space for downside. But its middle-to-long trend is still shaded by smooth progress in US-China trade talks and lagging effects from slashed sow herd under the ASF. Buyers can wait for steady declines to replenish properly on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines today, of which it settles down 30-40 yuan/tonne at 2,100-2,190 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,120, down 20; Guangdong 2,110, down 10; and Fujian 2,150, down 10). The rampant ASF has curbed demand for meal products, and rapeseed meal market is further slashed by its narrowed spread with soybean meal. And soybean arrival is expected to grow in the second quarter due to nice crush margins from Brazilian soybeans. Meanwhile, there is great probability that China and the United States will reach a deal in trade talks. In this case, rapeseed meal price is still capped by soybean meal. However, its inventory has fallen by 16% to 29,000 tonnes in coastal areas last week, and imported rapeseed will enter into tight supply after May and even get disconnected in June, so its price decline is limited, yet point to loss once there is a thaw in relations between Beijing and Ottawa. Buyers are suggested to buy on demand for the moment.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal stays stable and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is steadily at 9,900-10,100 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,200 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and at 11,000-11,100 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 75,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 64,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market rises today: it goes up by 20 USD/tonne to 1,350 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and by 20 USD/tonne to 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. On one hand, domestic fishmeal market has been propped up as holders are encouraged by price hikes abroad and price inversions at home and abroad. On the other, it is still curbed by stubbornly high inventories at ports and slow consumption amid fallow aquaculture and reduced number of breeding pigs under the ASF. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable to consolidate in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are stable with a decline of 30-100 yuan/tonne
The number of live hogs has fallen dramatically with an epidemic of African swine fever. As the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal increases in feed factory. Moreover, today meals on DCE take a slight drop and soybean meal spots are stable with a decline of 10-30 yuan/tonne. All these are negative to cottonseed meal. Nevertheless, cottonseed meal prices mostly holds steady due to the falling operation rates in cottonseed oil mills. But given the poor demand, short-term prices are likely to maintain the weak trend. Buyers could maintain wait-and-see attitudes.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
