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China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 13, 2019)

2019-04-02 www.cofeed.com
      I.National stocks

      This week (as of Mar. 29th), edible palm oil stock totals 766,600 tonnes at domestic ports, up 0.7% from 761,100 tonnes last week and down 16,100 tonnes or 2% from 782,700 tonnes month on month, and up 77,500 tonnes or 11.2% from 689,100 tonnes year on year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 129,700 tonnes, down 10,300 tonnes by 7.3% from 140,000 tonnes last week.

      The palm oil stock this week continues to rise. Moreover, with the favorable profit for palm oil import, China's importers continue to make orders, mostly for shipment in April. The import volume in April is expected to be 470,000-520,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 350,000-400,000 tonnes; industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). The spread between palm oil and soybean oil expands this week. As of this Friday, the spread was 1,073 yuan/tonne,  up 5 yuan/tonne from 1,068 yuan/tonne last week. However, with the buyers' purchase upon low prices the turnover for low prices further increases. The turnover of palm oil this week was 19,500 tonnes compared with 14,100 tonnes last week.  The palm oil demand will go up with the rise of temperature. Amid the increasing consumption of low-degree palm oil in March the palm oil demand is expected to further go up with rising temperature, which is favourable to destocking.


      Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

      II.Goods Arrivals

      According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the import estimate for March is expected to maintain the same level as the estimate last week to settle at 340,000-390,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 220,000-260,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000-130,000 tonnes), and the import estimate for April rivises upward 50,000 tonnes from that of last week to settle at 470,000-520,000 tonnes (24-degree 350,000-400,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).