Today (Apr. 2nd), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean posted a sharp rebound overnight for support from optimism about a trade deal with China, and meal futures follow to move up on higher opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots goes up by 10-40 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,480-2,530 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,470, Shandong 2,480-2,520, Jiangsu 2,470-2,530, Dongguan 2,500-2,510, and Guangxi 2,500-2,530). Soybean meal has accounted for a larger part in feed due to its narrowing spread with alternative meals, which has certainly compensated for reduced demand under the ASF. And oil mills are encouraged to raise the price by its strong sale recently. So soybean meal rebounds from previous losses today. But Chinese oil mills are scooping up on Brazilian soybean for its good crush margins, sending soybean arrival to exceed 27.0 Mln tonnes from April to June (with 8.25 Mln tonnes in 129 cargoes in April). While soybean crush will continue to rise in coming two weeks, meal consumption is sluggish under the ASF. Besides, domestic market has reacted negatively to smooth trade talks between China and the United States. Therefore, its middle-to-long trend still remains gloomy, but short-term market is bracing for rebounds after consecutive declines. Buyers are suggested to replenish appropriately on the dips, but not to chase after excessive gains.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises today, of which it settles up 10-20 yuan/tonne at 2,120-2,160 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,130, up 10; Guangdong 2,120, up 10; and Fujian 2,160, up 10). Rapeseed meal market is bolstered by tight rapeseed supply since there is no cargo for shipment after May amid tensions between China and Canada, but its demand has been replaced to a large extent by soybean meal due to their significantly narrowed price spread. In addition, soybean arrival is growing in the second quarter, and soybean meal price remains low under the ASF. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal price is still capped by soybean meal, and later trend will probably guided by relations between Beijing and Ottawas as it may fall upon a thaw in tensions. Buyers can just buy on demand for the moment.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal goes up and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it goes higher by 100 yuan/tonne to 10,000-10,200 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and to 10,300 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, and higher by 100-200 yuan/tonne to 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and higher by 200 yuan/tonne to 11,200-11,300 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 75,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 30,000 tonnes, Shanghai 64,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market stays stable today: it remains unchanged at 1,350 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. On one hand, domestic fishmeal market has been propped up as holders are encouraged by firm prices abroad and price inversions at home and abroad. On the other, it is still curbed by stubbornly high inventories at ports and slow consumption amid fallow aquaculture and reduced number of breeding pigs under the ASF. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable to consolidate in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are mostly stable with some prices down 40-50 yuan/tonne. The number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever. As the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. All the above are negative to cottonseed meal market. However, cottonseed meal has support when the operation rate in cottonseed oil is low, and today meals on DCE rebound a lot, and soybean meal rises 10-40 yuan/tonne. But short-term cottonseed meal is weak in going up for the poor demand and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.72)
