Today (Apr. 3rd), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Meal futures extend gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today on the back of US soybean overnight, and soybean meal spots steadily rise by 10-20 yuan/tonne in lighter trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,510-2,550 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,510, Shandong 2,510-2,530, Jiangsu 2,510-2,550, Dongguan 2,510-2,540, and Guangxi 2,520-2,550). Soybean meal has accounted for a larger part in feed due to its narrowing spread with alternative meals, which has certainly compensated for reduced demand under the ASF. Oil mills are encouraged to prop up prices of soybean meal for its strong trading volume in four consecutive weeks, in addition to supports from US soybean bounces, so soybean meal price is bracing a wave of rebounds. But it is very likely that China and the United States will hammer out a deal over their ongoing talks. And oil mils are expanding their soybean crush in view of its margins and its growing imports, whilst meal demand remains sluggish under the rampant ASF. Therefore, buyers are suggested not to chase after excessive rises, but to wait if with enough stockpiles.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal rises today, of which it settles up 20-40 yuan/tonne at 2,140-2,210 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,150, up 20; Guangdong 2,170, up 40; and Fujian 2,210, up 50). Rapeseed meal futures continue to move higher on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on worry that China has filed a quality complaint against a third Canadian exporter of canola. Currently, rapeseed meal market is shored up by tight rapeseed supply later since there is no rapeseed cargo after May amid tensions between China and Canada. However, whilst meal consumption is subject to the ASF, rapeseed meal demand has been replaced to a larger extent by soybean meal due to their significantly narrowed price spread. In addition, soybean arrival is growing sharply in the second quarter. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal price is still capped by soybean meal, and its later trend will be probably guided by relations between Beijing and Ottawas as it may fall upon a thaw in tensions. Buyers can just buy on demand for the moment.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal stays stable and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it remains unchanged at 10,000-10,200 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,300 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,200-11,300 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 76,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 30,000 tonnes, Shanghai 64,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market goes higher today: it goes up by 20 USD/tonne to 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and by 20 USD/tonne to 1,620 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. On one hand, domestic fishmeal market has been propped up as holders are encouraged by price hikes abroad and price inversions at home and abroad. On the other, it is still curbed by stubbornly high inventories at ports and slow consumption amid fallow aquaculture and reduced number of breeding pigs under the ASF. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable to consolidate in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are mostly stable with some prices up 20-100 yuan/tonne when the operation rate in cottonseed oil mill is at low level, U.S. soybeans overnight and meals on DCE today are both further up, and soybean meal spots are stable with a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, the number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever. As the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. All the above curb cottonseed meal upward potentials and short-term prices are likely to move sideways. Traders could buy on a hand-to-mouth basis.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
