Today (Apr. 4th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Meal futures inch lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today on the back of US soybeans overnight. Soybean meal spots broadly stay stable with some declines of 10-20 yuan/tonne in light trading. Specifically, the price is 2,480-2,550 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,510, Shandong 2,510-2,530, Jiangsu 2,510-2,550, Dongguan 2,510-2,540, and Guangxi 2,520-2,550). Soybean crush will keep increasing in coming few weeks amid growing imports as crop harvest is at full swing in Brazil, whilst soybean meal demand is falling now since it will take more time to digest previous replenishment under the ASF; thus, soybean meal market shows little upward impetus. But soybean meal has accounted for a larger part in feed due to its narrowing spread with alternative meals, and oil mills are propping up prices for its strong trading volume recently, so its price will not fall sharply in the short run. US President Donald Trump plans to meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He today as trade talks go well. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal is little changed today, of which it settles at 2,150-2,220 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,170; and Fujian 2,220). Rapeseed weekly crush is forecast to decline to a low level of 40,000 tonnes this week, so that rapeseed meal inventory will also keep falling. Besides, rapeseed supply will get tightened later as its cargoes are only three left in April and none after May amid tensions between Beijing and Ottawa. Therefore, rapeseed meal market has received certain support. But meals have seen their demand falling steeply under the contagious ASF, whilst rapeseed meal has already be supplanted in poultry feedstuff. Moreover, meal futures have slipped on the DCE today. There is thus little room for rapeseed meal to rise. Later market will depend on when tensions between China and Canada will be resolved, and rapeseed meal market may be forced to fall by a thaw. Buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying at present.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal stays stable to rise and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it remains unchanged at 10,000-10,200 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, goes higher by 200 yuan to 10,300-10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, by 200 yuan to 10,700-10,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and levels off at 11,200-11,300 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 77,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 30,000 tonnes, Shanghai 64,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market goes higher today: it goes up by 20 USD/tonne to 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and by 20 USD/tonne to 1,620 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. On one hand, domestic fishmeal market has been propped up as holders are encouraged by price hikes abroad and price inversions at home and abroad. On the other, it is still curbed by stubbornly high inventories at ports and slow consumption amid fallow aquaculture and reduced number of breeding pigs under the ASF. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to stay stable to consolidate in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable when the operation rate in cottonseed oil mill is at low level. However, the number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever. As the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. Additionally, U.S. soybeans overnight and meals on DCE today slip a bit and soybean meal spots are stable with some decline of 10-20 yuan/tonne. All the above curb cottonseed meal upward potentials and short-term prices are likely to move sideways. Traders could buy on a hand-to-mouth basis.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
