Today (Apr. 4th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price stays stable today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean is unchanged at 4,030 yuan/tonne from yesterday, and non-GM Russian soybean is unchanged at 3,270 yuan/tonne from yesterday and the GM is not offered. Amid the good situation of U.S.-China trade talks, an agreement U.S. and China are drawing out contains the commitments that China will meet until 2025 on commodity purchases including soybean and energy product. More U.S. soybean will be imported to China later. Add that bumper crop harvest of South America soybean and the global supply of soybean is sufficient and the supply for China's market is also likely to further go up to the detriment of imported soybean prices in distribution market amid tepid demand. Market has held a wait-and-see attitude before the result of U.S.-China trade talks and imported soybean prices in distribution market is predicted to be steady in the short run.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today are stable with some rebounding 0.01 yuan/kg. Some prices in Xinjiang rise due to the freight increase and the cotton ginning mills' strong willingness for higher offers amid the low operation rates in mills and insufficient cottonseed supply. However, the cottonseed trade is still light when cottonseed oil mills with low operation rates are cautious about purchase. Short-term cottonseed is likely to fluctuate narrowly and buyers could make proper replenishment upon low prices.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean closed lower overnight on profit-taking, and oil futures fluctuate at a narrow range on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the physicals, oils are broadly little changed after consecutive rises. Among them, soybean oil and palm oil post partial declines of 10-40 yuan/tonne in tepid trading, with some deals at low prices. Soybean oil still hold high stockpiles of 1.34 Mln tonnes in spite of some declines, and soybean crush will keep increasing in coming few weeks as oil mills are buying up on Brazilian soybean for its good crush margins, which will send soybean arrivals to hit above 27.0 Mln tonne in the second quarter. Besides, the import of profitable palm oil is also fairly huge. Massive supplies now keep oil market in check. But meal prices have been stagnancy for a long time under the ASF and Malaysian palm oil has seen declining inventories and strong export data in March, which have brought some support to oil futures. Overall, short-term oil spots will follow futures to post frequent fluctuations in a weak pattern, and buyers can just buy on demand.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,370-5,500 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, some down by 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,390-5,400, Rizhao 5,430, Zhangjiagang 5,500, and Guangzhou 5,370-5,380).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,380-4,510 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating by 10-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 4,460-4,470; Rizhao 4,510, down 40; Zhangjiagang 4,430, down 10; Guangzhou 4,380, up 10; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil basically steadies today, of which it is 6,950-7,050 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian and Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 7,100, stable). Despite its high stockpiles at present, rapeseed will enter into supply tensions later amid decreased imports with only three cargoes left for April shipment and none after May. Moreover, it is hard to tell how the relationship will evolve between China and Canada before the extradition hearing against Hua Wei Meng Wanzhou on May 8. Given this, rapeseed oil market will hold firm in the short run. But its demand has been weak due to its enlarged spread with soybean oil and palm oil, and its rises are mainly supported by tensions between China and Canada. Therefore, once a thaw occurs, rapeseed oil price will quickly take plunge. Buyers are suggested to wait on the sidelines since there are huge risks from state policy when chasing after big gains.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable with some rebounding 70 yuan/tonne as the low operation rates and limited output. However, the upward potentials is limited when the cottonseed oil volume for blending is not much, and today oils on DCE fluctuate in narrow range, oils spots mostly become stable after previous rise, and soybean oil and palm oil partly decline 10-40 yuan/tonne. With a glut of bulk oils commodity, short-term cottonseed oil is also weak in rebounding and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
