Today (Apr. 8th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean closed with losses last Friday, but meal futures edge up on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots steadily increase by 10-20 yuan/tonne, attracting some deals at low prices yet few at highs. Specifically, the price is 2,510-2,560 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,530, Shandong 2,520-2,540, Jiangsu 2,520-2,560, Dongguan 2,520-2,540, and Guangxi 2,520-2,560). Soybean meal has been reporting robust trading volume as it has accounted for a larger part in feed due to its narrowing spread with alternative meals, so meal prices now are shored up by eased soybean meal inventories. But a report by ADM said that a new deal could include China buying 40 million tonnes of US soybeans and 20 million tonnes of corn. Meanwhile, soybean crush will keep increasing in coming few weeks amid growing imports as crop harvest is at full swing in Brazil, whilst meal demand is falling now that it will take some time to digest previous replenishment, especially when hog herd has reduced by 9.6% monthly by the end of March under the ASF; thus, short-term soybean meal market shows little upward impetus, and later outlook is still hard to describe.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal inched higher today, of which it settles up 10 yuan at 2,170-2,230 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi not offered; Guangdong 2,170, stable; and Fujian 2,230, up 10). Rapeseed meal stockpiles declined by 17% to 24,500 tonnes in coastal areas last week. In the meantime, imported rapeseed supply will be tightened in May and even disconnected in June. Therefore, rapeseed meal market is bolstered. However, meal consumption is slow under the ASF and rapeseed meal demand is severely cut by its widened spread with soybean meal, and soybean imports will get a boost in the second quarter. Besides, it is very likely that China and the United States will hammer out a trade deal. Hence, rapeseed meal will find limited impetus to go upward capped by soybean meal. And later trend will depend largely on when there is a thaw between Beijing and Ottawa, so buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying for the moment.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal goes up and can be traded with price negotiations today, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it goes up by 100-200 yuan to 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, by 200 yuan to 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, by 100-200 yuan to 10,900-11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and by 100-200 yuan to 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 78,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 30,000 tonnes, Shanghai 66,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market stays stable today: it remains unchanged at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,620 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. On one hand, domestic fishmeal market has been propped up as holders are encouraged by price hikes abroad and price inversions at home and abroad, as well as a low-than-forecast quota of 2.1-2.2 Mln tonnes in the new fishing season. On the other, it is still curbed by stubbornly high inventories at ports and slow consumption amid fallow aquaculture and reduced number of breeding pigs under the ASF. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to go upward in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are stable with some prices weakly fluctuating 20-100 yuan/tonne. The number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever. As the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. Accordingly, the cottonseed meal demand is poor. However, cottonseed meal has support when the operation rate in cottonseed oil is low, and today meals on DCE further rise a bit, and soybean meal is stable with a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to fluctuate at a narrow range and traders can buy on a hand-to-mouth basis.
(USD $1=CNY 6.72)
