Today (Apr. 9th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean inched lower overnight, and meal futures also fall on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots follow to slip 10-20 yuan/tonne with a dramatic decline in trading volume. Specifically, the price is 2,480-2,550 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,500, Shandong 2,510-2,520, Jiangsu 2,500-2,550, Dongguan 2,500-2,540, and Guangxi 2,500-2,550). U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators will continue their talks this week by video conference as President Donald Trump said a deal could be reached in about four to six weeks. And US soybean is feeble in price hikes pressured by bumper harvests in South America. In China, soybean crush will be driven up by a steady recovery in soybean stockpiles as its arrivals at ports post marked rises in the second quarter. And data from Cofeed show that hog herd has suffered a monthly drop of 9.6% by the end of March amid outbreaks of the ASF, and downstream buyers will spend some time digesting their stockpiles after a wave of replenishment. Besides, sources told that China’s Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a second probe recently of US DDGS, as the U.S. applied to eliminate anti-dumping & anti-subsidy duties, for which alcohol enterprises was informed to provide related material within this week. Meal price may react negatively to seek little upward space amid high probability for substantial imports of DDGS later. However, soybean meal has accounted for a greater part in feed due to its narrowed spread with alternative meals so that its inventory pressure has already eased, so there will be limited room for a downside. Overall, soybean meal will adjust within a narrow range in the short term, and buyers can just wait for steady falls to see if there is any need to replenish.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal declines today, of which it settles down 30-50 yuan at 2,100-2,170 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,100; Guangdong 2,120, down 50; and Fujian 2,180, down 50). US soybean closed lower last night, and rapeseed meal is the biggest lose on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today as it might be partly replaced by DDGS, for sources told that China’s Ministry of Commerce decided to launch a second probe recently of US DDGS, as the U.S. applied to eliminate anti-dumping & anti-subsidy duties, for which alcohol enterprises was informed to provide related material within this week. Moreover, meal demand has already been weighing down by the ASF, and rapeseed meal demand is quite weak due to its narrowed spread with soybean meal. In the meantime, soybean arrivals at ports will grow substantially in the second quarter. Capped by soybean meal prices, short-term rapeseed meal market will snap off its rises to swing ups and downs. But currently, the market is propped up by tensions between China and Canada, for which there is no Canadian rapeseed cargo after May, and later market will depend largely on a thaw between Beijing and Ottawa, which will overshadow its outlook in middle and long trend.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal steadies with limited bargaining space and normal shipment at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,900-11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 78,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 28,000 tonnes, Shanghai 66,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 12,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market goes up today: it is quoted higher by 70 USD/tonne at 1,440 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and by 70 USD/tonne at 1,690 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. On one hand, domestic fishmeal market has been propped up as holders are encouraged by rising quotations abroad and price inversions at home and abroad, as well as a low-than-forecast quota of 2.1-2.2 Mln tonnes in the new fishing season. On the other, it is still curbed by stubbornly high inventories at ports and slow consumption amid fallow aquaculture and reduced number of breeding pigs under the ASF. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to go upward in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal stays stable when the operation rate and output in cottonseed oil mill decline. However, the soybean meal demand is bad because the number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever. And as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. Besides, today meals on DCE today fall back, with which soybean meal spots see a decline of 10-20 yuan/tonne. All the above curb cottonseed meal market and short-term prices are likely to move sideways. Traders could buy on a hand-to-mouth basis.
(USD $1=CNY 6.72)
