Today (Apr. 9th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price stays stable with a rise today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean is unchanged at 4,030 yuan/tonne from yesterday, and non-GM Russian soybean is 3,300 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne from yesterday and the GM is not offered. The non-GM Russian soybean in Tianjin port decline, which is good for traders, and thus soybean prices rise slightly. The U.S.-China trade talks go well and Trump said the U.S. and China were close to an agreement, with an announcement possible in the next four to six weeks. Besides, AMD said if an agreement is reached China would purchase 40 mln tonnes soybean ad 20 mln tonnes corn. Moreover, the global supply of soybean is sufficient with the pressure from bumper crop harvest in South America and the supply for China's market is also likely to go up later to the detriment of imported soybean prices in distribution market amid tepid demand. Market has held a wait-and-see attitude before the agreements of U.S.-China trade talks and imported soybean prices in distribution market is predicted to move sideways steadily and slightly in the short run.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today are stable as the freight increase from Xinjiang to inner land and the cotton ginning mills' strong willingness for higher offers amid the low operation rates in mills and insufficient cottonseed supply. However, the cottonseed trade is still light when cottonseed oil mills with some machine halt and low operation rates are cautious and purchase upon demand. Short-term cottonseed is likely to fluctuate narrowly and buyers could make proper replenishment upon low prices.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean edged down in overnight trading, and soybean oil is also slightly lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spots market, soybean oil drops steadily by 10-20 yuan/tonne and palm oil goes ups and downs by 10-40 yuan/tonne in light trading. Chinese buyers are now scooping up on Brazilian soybean for its good crush margins, so that soybean crush is rising amid substantial imports in the second quarter. Meanwhile, palm oil purchase is also increasing. Therefore, oil market is pressured down in price rises. But soybean oil inventory has further declined to 1.33 Mln tonnes since operation rate has gone lower than expected due to soybean shortages. Moreover, meal prices are also weighed down by the ongoing ASF, so oil mills are propping up oil prices. Oil spots will probably follow futures to go ups and downs frequently, and buyers can maintain light stockpiles for the moment.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,370-5,490 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, down by 10-20 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 5,370-5,380, Rizhao 5,420, Zhangjiagang 5,490, and Guangzhou 5,370).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,440-4,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating by 10-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 4,500-4,510, up 20; Rizhao 4,500-4,520, down 40; Zhangjiagang 4,480, up 10; Guangzhou 4,440, up 20; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil steadily drops today, of which it settles down 40-50 yuan at 6,880-7,050 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian and Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 7,050, stable). Oil stockpiles remain rather abundant amid flat demand, and rapeseed oil market has taken on a frosty picture due to its dramatically enlarged spread with soybean oil and palm oil. Moreover, soybean arrivals point to a sharp rise in the second quarter due to handsome crush margins from Brazilian soybeans. But rapeseed supply may get tightened later as its cargoes after May shipments have all been canceled amid rocky tensions between Beijing and Ottawa. In addition, a cargo of crude rapeseed oil is prevented from clearance at East port, and nobody has a final say about relationship between China and Canada before the extradition hearing against Meng Wanzhou on May 8. Currently, rapeseed oil will have little space for a steep downside, but it will take plunge on a thaw between the two countries, so buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable as the output decline with some machine halt and low operation rates. However, cottonseed oil volume for blending is not much. And today soybean oil on DCE take a slight drop with its spots stably down 10-20 yuan/tonne and palm oil fluctuate 10-40 yuan/tonne. Add that bulk oils supply outstrip demand and short-term cottonseed oil is likely to fluctuate narrowly as the rebound is weak now. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.72)
