Today (Apr. 11th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price stays stable today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean falls by 50 yuan/tonne to settle at 3,980 yuan/tonne from yesterday, and non-GM Russian soybean is unchanged at 3,300 yuan/tonne from yesterday and the GM is not offered. Agrural raised their 2018/19 soybean crop forecast to 114.6 million tonnes. With the bumper crop harvest in South America, global soybean supply is ample. Besides, the situation of U.S.-China trade talks becomes clear and U.S. Treasury Secretary says US and China have agreed on the trade deal enforcement mechanism. Accordingly, with more U.S. soybean import, the supply is likely to go up later to the detriment of imported soybean prices in distribution market amid tepid demand. Short-term prices likely turn stable.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today are stable with a strong fluctuation of 0.02-0.04 yuan/kg for some prices. The low operation rates in cotton ginning mills and insufficient cottonseed supply make the mills wait for higher offers. However, the cottonseed trade is still light when cottonseed oil mills with low operation rates are cautious and purchase upon demand. In Xinjiang, some mills have finished the purchase. Short-term cottonseed is likely to fluctuate narrowly and buyers could make proper replenishment upon low prices.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean rose overnight, but oil futures snap off gains to decline on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spot market, soybean oil and palm oil steadily step down 10-30 yuan/tonne in light trading, with some purchases at low prices. Despite progress in trade talks between China and the United States, US soybean is pressured by global supply to fluctuate between 890-920 cents in the short run. Soybean oil inventory has declined to 1.33 Mln tonnes as operation rate has been lower than expected due to soybean shortages. And rapeseed oil import policy seems to be tightened amid ongoing tensions between Beijing and Ottawa. In addition, the ASF is still wreaking havoc. Therefore, domestic oil futures have been resilient in recent sessions. But soybean arrival is forecast to top 27.0 Mln tonnes from April to June, and palm oil imports will average at least 470,000 tonnes in April and May. Generally, short-term spot soybean oil is predicted to fluctuate frequently within a narrow range on the back of its futures, and buyers are suggested to maintain light stockpiles for the moment.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,400-5,520 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, down by 10-20 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 5,400-5,410, Rizhao 5,450, Zhangjiagang 5,520, and Guangzhou 5,400).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,440-4,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10-30 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 4,500-4,510, down 10; Rizhao 4,520, down 30; Zhangjiagang 4,480, unchanged; Guangzhou 4,440, down 10; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil steadily fluctuates today, of which it goes ups and downs by 20-50 yuan to settle at 6,910-7,100 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian and Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 7,100, up 50). Rapeseed oil market is predicted to maintain its strong momentum amid tensions between China and Canada, for which domestic rapeseed import is only 180,000 tonnes in April and zero after May. But there are still bearish fundamentals, ranging from enlarging spread between itself and soybean oil and palm oil to good crush margins of South American soybean, growing soybean arrivals in the second quarter and massive palm oil purchases, so rapeseed oil price will likely take plunge once there is a thaw between China and Canada. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable with a rise of 20-50 yuan/tonne when machine halt in some mills pushes operation rates and output down. However, the cottonseed oil market is curbed as the cottonseed oil volume for blending is limited; trade is thin; bulk oils supply outstrips demand; today oils on DCE decline from previous rise and soybean oil and palm oil spots are stable with a drop of 10-30 yuan/tonne. Short-term cottonseed oil is likely to fluctuate.
Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
