Today (Apr. 10th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean was choppy in a narrow range to finish unchanged as USDA in its report stirred no ripples, and meal futures drop slightly on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal steadily slips 10-30 yuan/tonne with some purchases at low prices but few at highs. Specifically, the price settles at 2,480-2,550 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,510, Shandong 2,510-2,520, Jiangsu 2,500-2,530, Dongguan 2,500-2,530, and Guangxi 2,500-2,550). While soybean arrival is growing sharply in the second quarter as Chinese oil mills are busy buying for its good crush margins, meal demand will suffer a lot from the ASF later. Soybean meal price thus reacts negatively to such supply and demand. Moreover, smooth trade talks bode well for a deal between China and the United States, where the former is said to continue its substantial imports of US agriculture products. Meanwhile, anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on US DDGS will very likely be eliminated. However, soybean meal has been reporting robust trading volume as it has accounted for a larger part in feed due to its narrowing spread with alternative meals so that its inventory pressure has already eased. In this case, there will be limited room for a downside. In the short term, soybean meal will adjust within a narrow range, and buyers are suggested to keep appropriate stockpiles and be cautious in driving up price.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal broadly steadies today, of which it settles at 2,100-2,170 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,100; Guangdong 2,120, stable; and Fujian 2,180, stable). Feed enterprises have adjusted their formula by substantially replacing rapeseed meal with soybean meal due to their drastically narrowed spread. Meanwhile, soybean import is growing in the second quarter. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal market will be weak in rises capped by low soybean meal prices. But currently, the market is propped up by underlying supply tensions, as there is no Canadian rapeseed cargo after May amid rocky relationships between Beijing and Ottawa. Overall, short-term market will fluctuate at a narrow range and buyers can replenish on demand for the moment.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal steadies with some bargaining space at Southern ports and unhurried shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,900-11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 78,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 28,000 tonnes, Shanghai 67,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 12,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market remains unchanged today: it is quoted steadily at 1,440 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,690 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market now receives some supports from firm quotation abroad and price inversion at home and abroad, as well as lower-than-expected quotas in the new fishing season, so that holders are bolstered to prop up prices. Therefore, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to go upward in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some rises of 30 yuan/tonne when the machine halt in some mills push the output down accordingly. However, the soybean meal demand is bad because the number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever. And as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. Besides, today meals on DCE today fall back, with which soybean meal spots are stable with a decline of 10-30 yuan/tonne. All the above curb cottonseed meal market and short-term prices are likely to fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.72)
