Today (Apr. 12th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean closed lower on Thursday on disappointing export sales data and expectations of larger South American harvests, and meal futures fall on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices broadly drop 10-30 yuan/tonne in delicate trade, yet still clinching some deals upon negative forward basis. The price settles at 2,480-2,520 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,510, Shandong 2,490-2,510, Jiangsu 2,470-2,510, Dongguan 2,490-2,510, and Guangxi 2,500-2,520). The market are quite optimistic about a trade deal between China and the United States. South American crops have lowered down their cost of arrival at ports amid declining premiums, with their net crush margins up to 240-300 yuan/tonne for May to July shipments from Brazil and Argentina. Therefore, oil mills now are taking profits on low negative basis from M09-80 to 110. Whilst the market is curbed by low demand under the ASF and ballooned soybean imports in the second quarter, it will see limited downside space thanks to its strong trading volume recently for its narrowed spread with alternative meals. Overall, short-term market will probably continue to adjust in narrow fluctuation.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal edges lower steadily today, of which it settles at 2,100-2,180 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, some down by 10 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,100, stable; Guangdong 2,120, stable; and Fujian 2,180, stable). The contagious ASF has dragged on overall demand for meal products, of which rapeseed meal is further slashed by its narrowed spread with soybean meal. Moreover, soybean imports from South America will balloon in the second quarter due to good crush margins. And it is highly possible that China and the United States will hammer out a trade deal. Capped by soybean meal price, rapeseed meal market will gather little upward impetus. But the market will probably maintain narrow fluctuations with limited downside potential, as imported rapeseed supply will get tightened in May and even interrupted in June amid tensions between Beijing and Ottawa. Buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal steadies with some rises, seeing unhurried shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, higher by 100 yuan/tonne at 11,000-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and higher by 100 yuan/tonne at 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 79,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 28,000 tonnes, Shanghai 67,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 12,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market remains unchanged today: it is quoted steadily at 1,440 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,690 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Local producers in Peru are bolstered by fast advance sales in new season, and domestic holders are encouraged to prop up prices by firm quotations abroad and price inversions at home and abroad. Therefore, domestic fishmeal market has received some supports. But its shipment is tepid now subject to the ASF, resulting in huge inventory pressure at ports. Overall, domestic fishmeal market will stay stable to edge higher in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some rises of 40-50 yuan/tonne, which is due to low operation rates and output. However, the upward potential of soybean meal is limited because the number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever; as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; today meals on DCE fall back, and soybean meal spots mostly decline 10-30 yuan/tonne. Short-term prices are likely to move sideways. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.72)
