Today (Apr. 15th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Meal futures swing to edge up on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and spot soybean meal goes up by 10-30 yuan/tonne in fair trade at low prices. The price settles at 2,490-2,540 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,530, Shandong 2,520-2,540, Jiangsu 2,490-2,510, Dongguan 2500-2520, and Guangxi 2,520-2,540). Soybean meal has to the greatest extent replaced alternative meals in feed thanks to their narrowed spread, so its price is shored up to rebound by recent strong trading volume. But Reuters reported that U.S. will water down demand for China to reduce subsidies in push for a trade deal, and Bloomberg also said in its report that according to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the enforcement mechanism works in both directions, where each side is open to facing “repercussions” if it doesn’t live up to its commitments in a potential trade deal, in a sign that the two sides are edging closer to an accord; hence, China and the United States will probably hammer out a trade deal soon. South American crops have lowered down their cost of arrival at ports and increased crush returns amid declining premiums, sending soybean imports to soar in the second quarter in China. In the meantime, meal demand is still subject to the ASF. Therefore, soybean meal has limited room to go upward. Overall, it will extend its narrow fluctuations in the short term, and buyers can keep appropriate stockpiles on the dips instead of chasing for excessive rises.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal goes up today, of which it settles up 30-50 yuan at 2,150-2,200 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,150, up 50; Guangdong 2,150, up 30; and Fujian 2,200). Rapeseed meal market is buoyed by potential tensions of rapeseed supply, as imported rapeseed shipments after May have almost been canceled due to rocky relationships between China and Canada. But there are still bearish factors. Its inventory has increased by 24% weekly to 30,500 tonnes in coastal areas after its demand is fiercely cut by its sharply narrowed spread with soybean meal. And soybean import is ballooning in the second quarter. Besides, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he hoped U.S.-China trade talks were approaching a final lap. Therefore, rapeseed meal price will have little room for rises capped by soybean meal price, and will probably fluctuate at a narrow range in the short term. Buyers can just take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal steadies amid unhurried shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 11,000-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 79,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 28,000 tonnes, Shanghai 67,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 12,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market remains unchanged today: it is quoted steadily at 1,440 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,690 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Peruvian producers are offering steadily with strong sentiment to prop up prices, and domestic holders are bolstered by price inversions at home and abroad; hence, domestic fishmeal market has enjoyed certain support. But its shipment is tepid now subject to the ASF, in addition to huge inventory pressure at ports. Overall, domestic fishmeal market will stay stable to edge higher in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some rises of 20-80 yuan/tonne as operation rates and cottonseed meal output in cottonseed oil mills are low. However, the upward potential of soybean meal is limited because the number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever; as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. The rising range for short-term prices is likely curbed. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
