Today (Apr. 16th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Meal futures move higher on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today on the back of US soybeans in overnight trade, and spot soybean meal steadily rises 10-20 yuan/tonne in subdued trading. The price settles at 2,490-2,540 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,540, Shandong 2,510-2,530, Jiangsu 2,490-2,530, Dongguan 2,510-2,530, and Guangxi 2,520-2,540). Soybean meal has to a great extent replaced alternative meals for their minor price difference, sending its trading volume to 440,000 tonnes yesterday. And its price is thus shored up as the market confidence is boosted by its better-than-expected trading volume. But amid upbeat sentiment toward trade talks with the United States, China’s Ministry of Commerce in the form of announcement said it will review whether it is necessary to continue to impose anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures on imported DDGS from the US. And meal market will react negatively if the import is resumed. Add to that, while imported soybean quantity will grow massively in the second quarter due to good crush margins of South American soybean, whose declining premiums have brought down import costs, domestic meal demand is weak as the African swine fever is still wreaking havoc. And this will be a curb on price rises of soybean meal. Overall, the market may extend its narrow fluctuations in the short term. And traders need to watch out for risks amid upbeat sentiment for a trade deal, and buyers can make appropriate replenishment on the dips but not chase after excessive hikes.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal broadly keeps steady today, of which it settles at 2,120-2,200 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,150, stable; Guangdong 2,150, stable; and Fujian 2,200, stable). Rapeseed meal market remains buoyed by a tight rapeseed supply outlook since its shipments after May have almost been canceled due to rocky relationships between China and Canada. But its share in aquatic feed has fallen to a fresh low for its minor spread with soybean meal, and soybean imports will jump in the second quarter on handsome crush margins of South American crops. Its rise in price is thus capped by soybean meal. Overall, short-term rapeseed meal market will extend its narrow and somewhat strong fluctuations, and later trend will depend largely on a thaw between China and Canada, which will weigh on the market. Buyers can just wait or buy on demand.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal steadies amid unhurried shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 11,000-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, and 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 79,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 27,000 tonnes, Shanghai 67,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 13,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market remains unchanged today: it is quoted steadily at 1,440 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,690 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Peruvian producers are offering steadily with strong sentiment to prop up prices, and domestic holders are bolstered by price inversions at home and abroad; hence, domestic fishmeal market has enjoyed certain support. But its shipment is tepid now subject to the ASF, in addition to huge inventory pressure at ports. Overall, domestic fishmeal market will stay stable to edge higher in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some fluctuations of 10-100 yuan/tonne as operation rates and cottonseed meal output in cottonseed oil mills are low; today meals on DCE go up and soybean meal spots are stable with a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, the upward potential of soybean meal is limited because the number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever; and as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. The upward potential for short-term prices is likely curbed. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
