Today (Apr. 17th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean fell as farmers were stirred sell by weaker real in Brazil, and meal futures also slip on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal is lower by 10-30 yuan/tonne in subdued trade. The price settles at 2,480-2,530 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,540, Shandong 2,500-2,520, Jiangsu 2,480-2,510, Dongguan 2,500-2,520, and Guangxi 2,500-2,520). With upbeat sentiment toward trade talks with the United States, China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed it is starting a review of its anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on DDGS imports from the United States. Meal market thus reacts negatively to possibly resumed imports. Furthermore, South American crop has brought its net crush margins higher to 270-320 yuan/tonne by declining import costs upon its big discount, so that soybean imports will surge in the second quarter. Besides, meal demand will cripple under the African swine fever. Therefore, soybean meal will see limited upward potential later, and has already snapped off its gains to edge down today. But its price spread with alternative meals has touched a record low and thus replaced them to a great extent. Under this, its has been reporting strong trading volume since March, sending its demand much better than forecast. Meanwhile, several oil mills have suspended their operation for disruption of soybean supply. Overall, short-term market will mainly maintain its choppy, range-bound trading, and buyers can wait for steady declines to make replenishment.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal edges lower steadily today, of which it settles down 10 yuan at 2,120-2,200 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,150, stable; Guangdong 2,150, stable; and Fujian 2,190, down 10). Feed producers have employed heavy addition of soybean meal due to its minor price spread with rapeseed meal. Moreover, soybean meal price has been sliding due to surging soybean imports in the second quarter and ongoing outbreaks of the ASF. Capped by soybean meal, short-term rapeseed meal will see limited price rises, and has reversed its upward trend to fluctuate today. But due to rocky relationships between China and Canada, there will no rapeseed shipments after May. Therefore, rapeseed meal market has received certain support to remain little changed. In the short term, it will maintain its range-bound trend, and buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal is trading lower steadily amid unhurried shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content; and it is lower by 100 yuan/tonne at 11,000-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 80,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 27,000 tonnes, Shanghai 68,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 14,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market declines today: it is quoted lower by 70 USD/tonne at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,620 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market is coming under pressure, as holders are facing high stockpiles amid slow shipments at port, in addition to falling quotations in foreign market. But there are still bullish factors including price inversions at home and abroad and lower estimate for capture quotas. Fundamentally, domestic fishemal prices will broadly keep steady in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some rises of 20-100 yuan/tonne, which is due to low operation rates and output. However, the upward potential of cottonseed meal is limited because the number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever; as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; today meals on DCE fall back, and accordingly soybean meal spots decline 10-30 yuan/tonne. The upward potential of short-term cottonseed meal are likely to be curbed. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
