Today (Apr. 18th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean continued to close lower overnight, as its export is further pressured by huge discounts in Argentina and quick sales under weaker real in Brazil. Meal futures extend losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and spot soybean meal follows to slip 10-20 yuan/tonne in weaker trade. The price settles at 2,470-2,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,520, Shandong 2,480-2,510, Jiangsu 2,460-2,520, Dongguan 2,490-2,520, and Guangxi 2,500-2,520). China and the United States have managed to bring their trade talks into an upbeat state, as a foreign report said that both sides have scheduled a fresh round of talks in Beijing on April 29, and also in Washington D.C. the following week, aiming to reach a trade deal in early May and hold a signing ceremony in late May. From its fundamentals, soybean meal market is a hybrid of a bull and a bear. On one hand, meal market is weighed on by possibly resumed imports of DDGS from the United States. And South American crop has brought its net crush margins higher by declining import costs upon its big discount, so that soybean imports will surge in the second quarter. Besides, meal demand will cripple under the African swine fever. On the other, its minor price spread with alternative meals has enabled it to replace them to the greatest extent. Under this, soybean meal has been reporting strong trading volume since March, coupled by lower operation rate in Shandong, so that its inventory pressure has got some relief. Overall, short-term market will mainly maintain its choppy, range-bound trading, and buyers can wait for steady declines to make replenishment.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal edges lower steadily today, of which it settles down 10 yuan at 2,100-2,190 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,150, stable; Guangdong 2,150, stable; and Fujian 2,190, stable). China and the United States are expected to announce a deal in late May amid upbeat trade talks. And DDGS import may be resumed as China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed it is starting a review of its anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs from the United States. Moreover, feed producers have employed heavy addition of soybean meal due to its minor price spread with rapeseed meal, and soybean meal price has been sliding due to ballooning soybean imports in the second quarter. Capped by soybean meal, short-term rapeseed meal will see limited price rises. But there is no rapeseed shipments after May amid rocky relationships between China and Canada, so rapeseed meal market will see limited downward space. Buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal is trading steadily amid unhurried shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 11,000-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 81,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 27,000 tonnes, Shanghai 70,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 15,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market declines today: it is unchanged at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,620 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market is coming under pressure, as holders are facing high stockpiles amid slow shipments at port. But there are still bullish factors for sales sentiment, including stable quotation abroad and price inversions at home and abroad. Generally, domestic fishemal prices will broadly keep steady in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal mostly stays stable with a rise of 100 yuan/tonne for some prices, which is due to low operation rates and output. However, the price adjustment is limited because the number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever; as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; today meals on DCE further fall back, and accordingly soybean meal spots decline 10-20 yuan/tonne. Short-term cottonseed meal are likely to stay stable with some fluctuations. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.69)
