Today (Apr. 19th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Spot soybean meal settles up 10-20 yuan/tonne with some deals at low prices following US soybean overnight and meal bounces on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. The price is 2,450-2,550 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,550, Shandong 2,490-2,540, Jiangsu 2,480-2,530, Dongguan 2500-2520, and Guangxi 2,500-2,530). The market is now shored up by its eased inventory pressure amid strong trading volume since March, when soybean meal has begun to replace (to the greatest extent) alternative meals by their minor price spread. However, huge soybean supply globally and possibly reopened imports for US DDGS domestically are weighing on the market. Meanwhile, China and the United States are expected to reach a deal in early May and hold a signing ceremony in late May. And soybean imports keep ballooning in the second quarter since oil mills are buying up on South American crop that has brought its net crush margins higher by declining import costs upon its big discount, whilst meal demand will cripple under the African swine fever. Generally, soybean meal price may extend its narrow fluctuation in the short term, and its middle-to-long trend will depend largely on trade talks. Buyers can replenish appropriately on the dips and be cautious in chasing prices up.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal climbs higher today, of which it settles up 10-20 yuan at 2,100-2,190 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,150, stable; Guangdong 2,160, up 10; and Fujian 2,220, up 10). Chinese importers have canceled May shipments amid tensions between Beijing and Ottawa, so rapeseed meal market is now buoyed by tight rapeseed supply. But its demand by feed factories has been cut due to its small spread with soybean meal, whose price remains low amid growing soybean import at current quarter and ongoing African swine fever. In the short term, rapeseed meal price will have limited upward space and will fluctuate at a narrow range, so buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal is trading steadily with some negotiating space amid unhurried shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 11,000-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200-11,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 82,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 27,000 tonnes, Shanghai 72,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 15,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market declines today: it is unchanged at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,620 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market remains bearish as holders are pressured by tepid demand and high stockpiles, but there is support from firm quotation abroad and price inversion at home and abroad. Therefore, domestic fishemal prices will broadly keep steady in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some rises of 50-100 yuan/tonne, as operation rates and cottonseed meal output in cottonseed oil mills are low; today meals on DCE rebound a bit and soybean meal spots accordingly rise 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, the price adjustment of cottonseed meal is curbed because the number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever; and as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to stay stable with some fluctuations. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.70)
