Today (Apr. 19th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price stays stable today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean is unchanged at 3,980 yuan/tonne from yesterday, and non-GM Russian soybean is unchanged at 3,300 yuan/tonne from yesterday and the GM is not offered. Amid the good situation of U.S.-China trade talks, negotiators would reach a deal in early May and hold a signing ceremony in late May. More U.S. soybean will be imported to China later. Add that the global supply of soybean is sufficient due to bumper crop harvest of South America soybean and the supply for China's market is also likely to further go up to the detriment of imported soybean prices in distribution market amid tepid demand. Short-term prices likely keep stable.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today are mostly stable with some prices up 0.02-0.04 yuan/kg.
The low operation rates in cotton ginning mills and insufficient cottonseed supply, especially for some regions, as well as the strong sideways for unginned cotton prices make the cotton ginning mills wait for higher offers. However, the cottonseed trade is still light when cottonseed oil mills with low operation rates are cautious and purchase upon demand. Short-term cottonseed is likely to stay stable with strong fluctuations and buyers could make proper replenishment upon low prices.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean got a bounce overnight, but oil futures inch lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In spot markets, soybean oil is partially down 10-30 yuan/tonne, and palm oil goes ups and downs by 10-50 yuan/tonne. Buyers have made some purchases at low prices, but trading volume remains a little. Domestic oil market is weighed on by hopes in U.S.-China trade negotiations. Besides, soybean oil inventories may keep rising as refinery capability utilization continues to pick up amid growing soybean imports from South America, where big price discounts have sent cost of arrival to fall and net crush margins to reach 260-330 yuan/tonne for shipments in May to July. And domestic import of palm oil will average at 470,000 tonnes in April and May during production season in Malaysia. Therefore, a supply glut has obviously kept oil prices a tad lower. But meal prices have crippled under the ASF, and rapeseed oil futures trade higher amid tensions between Beijing and Ottawa, potentially offering some support to oil prices. In the short term, the market will extend its choppy, range-bound trend to adjust on the back of futures, and buyers can maintain light stockpiles for the moment.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,320-5,450 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas. (Tianjin 5,310-5,320, Rizhao 5,360, Zhangjiagang 5,450, and Guangzhou 5,320).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,430-4,510 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 4,490-4,500; Rizhao 4,510; Zhangjiagang 4,450, unchanged; Guangzhou 4,430-4,440; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil edge lower steadily today, of which it settles down 10 yuan at 6,920-7,100 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian and Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 7,100, stable). Rapeseed oil market takes on a bleak look due to its enlarging spread with soybean oil and palm oil. Moreover, soybean import will balloon at current quarter, and palm oil import will average at 470,000 tonnes in April and May amid rising import profits. An oil supply glut will thus be a drag on rapeseed oil market. However, meal prices have been crippling under the ASF. And rapeseed supply may be tightened later as there is no May shipment amid tensions between Beijing and Ottawa, which will linger before the extradition hearing against Meng Wanzhou on May 8th. Rapeseed oil will have little downside potential in the short term, and its later market will mainly rely on state policy, which has offered full support to current rises and may send fluctuations to later prices. Buyer are suggested to keep light stockpiles.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable with machine halt in some mills and low operation rates. However, cottonseed oil prices are weighed on when edible oil is in periodic off-season; cottonseed oil volume for blending is not much; today oils on DCE see a slight decline, soybean oil spots partially drop 10-30 yuan/tonne and palm oil spots partially fluctuate 10-50 yuan/tonne. Short-term cottonseed oil is likely to stay stable with some fluctuations at a narrow range, and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.70)
