I．National stocks
This week (as of Apr. 19th), edible palm oil stock totals 751,900 tonnes at domestic ports, up 0.3% from 749,300 tonnes last week and down 9,200 tonnes or 1.2% from 761,100 tonnes month on month, and up 58,900 tonnes or 8.5% from 693,000 tonnes year on year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 150,600 tonnes, up 16,800 tonnes by 12.5% from 133,800 tonnes last week.
The stock of edible palm oil this week rise a bit from earlier decline. And the spread between palm oil and soybean oil further narrows. As of this Friday, the spread between palm oil and soybean oil is 910 yuan/tonne, narrowing 43 yuan/tonne from 953 yuan/tonne last week, and narrowing 320 yuan/tonne from 1,220 yuan/tonne on March 6th. Besides, as the further decline of oils on DCE weigh on buyers' activity, the turnover of palm oil this week remains thin to 3,900 tonnes, compared with 5,350 tonnes last week. Given that the average monthly import for April and May is 470,000 tonnes at least, the palm oil stock is predicted to increase.
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II．Goods Arrivals
According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the estimate of import volume for April rise by 20,000 tonnes from last week to settle at 530,000-540,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 410,000-420,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes), and the estimate for May this week remains basically unchanged from last week at 470,000 tonnes (24-degree 350,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes). The estimate of import volume for June is 410,000 tonnes (24-degree palm oil 290,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 120,000 tonnes).
