Today (Apr. 23rd), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean finished lower in overnight trade, but meal futures point to gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal broadly steadies with some rises in tepid trading. Specifically, the price settles up 10-20 yuan/tonnes at 2,520-2,540 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,550, Shandong 2,520-2,540, Jiangsu 2,500-2,530, Dongguan 2,510-2,520, and Guangxi 2,500-2,530). While pig feed declined 14% amid the African swine fever in the first quarter from a year earlier, poultry feedstuff consumption rose by around 11%. And as the weather warms up in Southern China, demand from aquaculture is gradually recovering. Moreover, soybean meal itself has seen rising quantity in feed compared with substitute meals due to their small price spread, now even to a 5-year low. Oil mills, encouraged by strong trading volume since March and better-than-expected demand, are propping up soybean meal prices. But soybean imports have been growing for good crush margins of bumper South American crops, and the African swine fever is still spreading, so there is limited upward space for soybean meal. Overall, short-term soybean meal may extend its choppy, range-bound trend.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal are steadily lower today, of which it settles down 10 yuan at 2,100-2,220 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,140, stable; Guangdong 2,150, down 10; and Fujian 2,220, stable). Feed producers have employed more soybean meal to supplant rapeseed meal due to their minor price spread. And meal market has been weak due to growing soybean imports in the second quarter and lingering African swine fever. Moreover, China may resume DDGS imports from the United States on optimism in trade talks. However, rapeseed supply may get tightened later as its cargoes after May have all been canceled amid tensions between China and Canada, so there is limited space for rapeseed meal price to downside. In the near term, the market will maintain its choppy, range-bound trend, and buyers can take a hand-to-mouth tactic.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal is trading steadily amid unhurried shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,900-11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 84,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 26,000 tonnes, Shanghai 74,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 16,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market declines today: it is unchanged at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,620 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal has seen tepid demand from aquaculture that has just started, and even limited by the ongoing African swine fever. In the meantime, its inventories have piled higher to 206,000 tonnes at port with new cargoes from Peru. But domestic holders are encouraged by firm quotation abroad and price inversions at home and abroad, and this is beneficial to the market. Overall, domestic fishemal prices will broadly keep steady in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meals today are stable with some rises of 50 yuan/tonne, as operation rates are low during the inspection for environmental protection; today meals on DCE rise slightly and soybean meal spots are stable with a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, the upward potential of cottonseed meal is curbed because the number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever; and as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to stay stable with fluctuations at a narrow range. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.71)
