Today (Apr. 24th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean closed with huge losses in overnight trade on its high stockpiles and fast sales in South America, and meal futures fall upon lower opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal steps down 10-20 yuan/tonne in lighter trading, to settle at 2,470-2,520 yuan/tonnes in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,540, Shandong 2,520, Jiangsu 2,500-2,510, Dongguan 2,500-2,510, and Guangxi 2,500-2,520). Good crush margins have been luring importers to scoop up on South American crops, whilst meal prices are lower under the African swine fever. However, demand in aquaculture is gradually picking up as summers are intensifying day by day. And as its price spread with substitute meals has hit a five-year low, soybean meal has seen demand growth in poultry feedstuff, which has partially compensated for the reduction caused by the epidemic. Since March, soybean meal has been reporting strong trading volume, making its inventory eased upon better-than-forecast demand. Therefore, its price declines has been limited. China and the United States have scheduled for a new round of talks later this month, aiming at reaching a deal in earlier May, so participants can keep a close watch on it. In the short term, soybean meal market may extend its choppy, range-bound trend, and buyers can wait for steady declines to make some replenishment.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal is priced lower today, of which it settles down 10-20 yuan at 2,100-2,210 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,130, down 10; Guangdong 2,140, down 10; and Fujian 2,210, down 10). Demand in aquaculture is gradually picking up as summers are intensifying day by day in south China, but rapeseed meal demand becomes quite delicate as feed factories have turned away to soybean meal due to their minor spread. Moreover, domestic soybean import is growing amid good crush margins of bumper South American crops, whilst the African swine fever is still spreading. However, rapeseed imports from Canada have all been canceled from next month due to strained tensions, so its supply may be tightened later. Overall, rapeseed meal has come under pressure yet with limited downward space, and will fluctuate within current range in the short term. Buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal is trading steadily amid unhurried shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,900-11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 85,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 26,000 tonnes, Shanghai 75,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 16,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market declines today: it is unchanged at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,620 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal demand is tepid from aquaculture and even limited by the ongoing African swine fever. In the meantime, its inventories have piled higher to 206,000 tonnes at port with new cargoes from Peru. But domestic holders are encouraged by firm quotation abroad and price inversions at home and abroad, and this is beneficial to the market. Overall, domestic fishemal prices will broadly keep steady in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal mostly stays stable with a rise of 60 yuan/tonne for some prices when operation rates are low for the machine halt in most mills of Shandong during the inspection for environmental protection. However, the upward potential of cottonseed meal is curbed because the number of live hogs has fallen to a low level with an epidemic of African swine fever; and as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; additionally, meals on DCE fall back with low opens and soybean meal drops 10-20 yuan/tonne. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to stay stable with move sideways. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.72)
