Today (Apr. 25th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean ended lower in overnight trade, and meal futures remain resilient on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal steadily fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne with some replenishment at low prices, to settle at 2,4780-2,530 yuan/tonnes in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,540, Shandong 2,510-2,520, Jiangsu 2,480-2,510, Dongguan 2,500-2,510, and Guangxi 2,500-2,530). Demand in aquaculture is gradually picking up as summers are intensifying day by day. And as its price spread with substitute meals has hit a five-year low, soybean meal has seen demand growth in poultry feedstuff, which has partially compensated for the reduction caused by the epidemic. Since March, soybean meal has been reporting strong trading volume on better-than-forecast demand, for which oil mills have almost completed their spot sales. Meal prices have thus remained resilient. But good crush margins have been luring importers to scoop up on South American crops, whilst the African swine fever is still spreading. And China and the United States have scheduled their talks in Beijing on April 30 and in Washington D.C. on May 8 with hopes of an agreement. Before this, soybean meal may extend its choppy, range-bound trend, and buyers are suggested to replenish appropriately instead of chase after excessive rises.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal is steadily lower today, of which it settles down 10 yuan at 2,100-2,220 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,120, down 10; Guangdong 2,140, stable; and Fujian 2,210, stable). Feed factories have violently cut rapeseed meal in their formula due to its small spread with soybean meal. Moreover, soybean import from South America is ballooning in the second quarter on good crush margins, and soybean meal has little upward impetus under the African swine fever. Therefore, rapeseed meal will have limited space for price rises in the short term. But it has received some support from tight rapeseed supply since there is no cargo after May amid tensions between China and Canada, which has forced Canadian farmers to plan to slash their rapeseed planting area by 6.6% to 2.131 mln acres. In the short term, rapeseed meal market will extend its choppy, range-bound trend, and buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal is trading steadily amid unhurried shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,900-11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 86,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 25,000 tonnes, Shanghai 76,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 16,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market declines today: it is unchanged at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,620 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal demand is tepid from aquaculture and even limited by the ongoing African swine fever. In the meantime, its inventories have piled higher to 210,000 tonnes at port with new cargoes from Peru. But domestic holders are encouraged by firm quotation abroad and price inversions at home and abroad, and this is beneficial to the market. Overall, domestic fishemal prices will broadly keep steady in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are mostly stable with a rise of 50 yuan/tonne when the inspection for environmental protection and poor crush margin result in low operation rates; today meals on DCE meet strong resistance on the way down and soybean meal spots are stable with fluctuations of 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, the upward potential of cottonseed meal is curbed because an epidemic of African swine fever drags down cottonseed meal demand; and as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to stay stable with some fluctuations. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.73)
