Today (Apr. 25th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price stays stable today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean is unchanged at 4,050 yuan/tonne from yesterday, and non-GM Russian soybean is unchanged at 3,380 yuan/tonne from yesterday and the GM is not offered. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated that Argentina's soybean crop in 2018/19 will be 55 million tonnes, up 57% from 35.10 million tonnes last year. The Brazilian soybeans harvest is 92% complete. With the bumper crop harvest in South America, the global soybean supply is ample. Additionally, with clear outlook of U.S.-China trade talks, China will purchase more US soybeans. The expectation of more soybean import weighs on the imported soybeans for distribution amid its tepid demand. The fluctuation of short-term prices are likely curbed.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed prices today are stable when the cotton ginning mills are waiting for higher offers as the insufficient and tight supply for cottonseed. However, the oil mills' cautiousness about purchase limits the uptrend as machine halt in most mills of Shandong results in low operation rates amid the poor crush margin and the inspection for environmental protection. Given the uncertainty in the market, short-term cottonseed is likely to move sideways and buyers could buy on a hand-to-mouth basis.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean fell for a second session. And domestically, palm oil posts a rebound and soybean oil slows down its losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In spot markets, soybean oil steadily fluctuates by 10-30 yuan/tonne, and palm oil steadily goes up by 10 yuan/tonne, both in light trading with some purchases at low prices. Although meal demand has been cut by the African swine fever, soybean meal has outperformed alternative meals in feed due to its higher cost advantages and has reported strong trading volume since March. Meanwhile, the amount of imported soybean from South America will be large from May to August due to handsome crush margins, and oil mills are making full use of their capability utilization to meet the demand. And palm oil has entered into production season in Malaysia. Therefore, oil mills are unable to prop up prices amid bearish fundamentals. In addition, rapeseed oil is allowed to go processing now and its import inspections have become less stricter, so its futures extends losses on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. In the short term, domestic soybean oil spot may head for a weak side, and buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,270-5,410 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, fluctuating by 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,270-5,280, Rizhao 5,320, Zhangjiagang 5,410, and Guangzhou 5,310-5,320).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,390-4,430 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up 10 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 4,420-4,430, unchanged; Rizhao 4,430, unchanged; Zhangjiagang 4,400, up 20; Guangzhou 4,390, unchanged; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil stays stable with some declines today, of which it settles down 20-30 yuan at 6,800-7,100 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian and Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 7,100, stable). High-priced rapeseed meal market takes on a waning look as its demand has been cut by its large spread against palm oil and soybean oil, who have contributed to pile up adequate oil stockpiles. Moreover, soybean import from South America is ballooning due to its good crush margins. However, rapeseed cargoes after May have all been canceled amid tensions between Beijing and Ottawa, so rapeseed supply may get tightened later, and Canadian farmers have thus plan to slash their rapeseed planting area by 6.6% to 2.131 mln acres. In the short term, rapeseed oil will still stay high, but will take plunge upon a thaw between China and Canada. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil today stays stable when the inspection for environmental protection and poor crush margin result in low operation rates and limited output; and today palm oil on DCE rebounds, soybean oil spots are stable with some fluctuations of 10-30 yuan/tonne, and palm oil spots are stable with a rise of 10 yuan/tonne. However, cottonseed oil prices are weighed on when cottonseed oil volume for blending is not much. Short-term cottonseed oil is likely to stay stable with fluctuations at a narrow range, and buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.73)
