Today (Apr. 26th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean slightly rebounded in overnight trade, but meal futures edge lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today. Spot soybean meal steadily declines by 10-20 yuan/tonne in light trading. Specifically, the price settles at 2,470-2,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,530, Shandong 2,510-2,520, Jiangsu 2,470-2,510, Dongguan 2,490-2,510, and Guangxi 2,500-2,520). Demand in aquaculture is gradually picking up as summers are intensifying day by day in south China. And as its price spread with substitute meals has hit a five-year low, soybean meal has seen rising demand in poultry feedstuff, which has partially compensated for the reduction caused by the epidemic. Oil mills have almost finished their spot sales amid better-than-expected demand, and they are propping up meal prices as soybean oil prices have plunged to record lows. Oils and meals on the DCE broadly post losses, as oil mills are selling on basis to lock in profits after they bought a total of 10-13 cargoes of South American crops from Monday to Wednesday this week, whose net crush margins still stay at 230-300 yuan/tonne today for shipment in May to July. Worse still, the African swine fever is still spreading. China and the United States have scheduled their talks in Beijing and Washington D.C. in the next two weeks with a high expectation for a deal, for which soybean meal market should be under pressure. In the short term, it may extend its choppy, range-bound trend, and buyers can wait on the sidelines.
Imported rapeseed meal: Imported rapeseed meal is steadily lower today, of which it settles down 10-20 yuan at 2,100-2,200 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,120, stable; Guangdong 2,120, down 20; and Fujian 2,200, down 10). Whilst meal demand is weak amid the African swine fever, rapeseed meal demand is severely cut by its large price spread with soybean meal. And oil mills and traders have stirred up sharp sell-offs of soybean meal on the dips, as imported South American soybeans have pegged its net crush margins at 230-300 yuan/tonne today. Rapeseed meal price is weighed down by a great high probability of a trade deal between China and the United States, but its declines is limited by tensions between Beijing and Ottawa, so buyers can take a hand-to-mouth basis.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal is trading steadily amid unhurried shipments at port today. Quotation at ports: it is priced steadily at 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 10,500 yuan/tonne for Thai SD with 67% protein content, 10,900-11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 87,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 25,000 tonnes, Shanghai 77,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 17,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot price (FOB) in foreign market declines today: it is unchanged at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and 1,620 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal demand is tepid from aquaculture and even limited by the ongoing African swine fever. In the meantime, its inventories have piled higher to 212,000 tonnes at port with new cargoes from Peru. But domestic holders are encouraged by firm quotation abroad and price inversions at home and abroad, and this is beneficial to the market. Overall, domestic fishemal prices will broadly keep steady in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices today are mostly stable with some prices down 30 yuan/tonne, when ASF drags down demand for cottonseed meal; and as the price spread between soybean meal and cottonseed meal is too narrow, the substitution of soybean meal from cottonseed meal happens in feed factory; additionally, today meals on DCE take a slight drop, and soybean meal spots are stable with a decline of 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, the downward potential of cottonseed meal is curbed by the low operation rates and limited output. Short-term cottonseed meal is likely to stay stable with move sideways. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
(USD $1=CNY 6.73)
